Sioux Falls: Dylan Dietrich vs Colton Smith

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Dylan Dietrich (25%) · Dylan Dietrich at 65¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 2

Dylan Dietrich65¢Colton Smith35¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dylan Dietrich

Consensus Traders

Dylan Dietrich 25%

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

$3.76

Research grade

NeutralDylan Dietrich at 65%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dylan Dietrich

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Dylan Dietrich65%

Colton Smith35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dylan Dietrich1 trader

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares6,046

Combined PnL+$0.01

Colton Smith3 traders

Total Value$419.89

Total Shares1,203

Combined PnL+$3.76

Dylan Dietrich — 25%Colton Smith — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XA xabidaking	Dylan Dietrichavg 65¢	$6.0K	$3.9K	+$0.01	36% 225-395 (620)
VeryLucky888CTR	Colton Smithavg 34.8¢	$742.76	$379.09	+$3.83	58% 39668-28654 (68322)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Colton Smithavg 35¢	$25.13	$25.5	+$0.38	56% 6752-5410 (12162)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Colton Smithavg 35¢	$15.75	$15.3	-$0.45	57% 27008-20057 (47065)

xabidaking

Dylan Dietrich

Invested

$6,046.43

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$0.01

Record

36%

225-395 (620)

VeryLucky888CTR

Colton Smith

Invested

$742.76

Value

$379.09

PnL

+$3.83

Record

58%

39668-28654 (68322)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Colton Smith

Invested

$25.13

Value

$25.5

PnL

+$0.38

Record

56%

6752-5410 (12162)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Colton Smith

Invested

$15.75

Value

$15.3

PnL

-$0.45

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

Research grade

NeutralDylan Dietrich at 65%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Dylan Dietrich

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dylan Dietrich wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.