Brest: Gabriel Diallo vs Nishesh Basavareddy

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Gabriel Diallo (64%) · Gabriel Diallo at 71¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 3

Gabriel Diallo71¢Nishesh Basavareddy29¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Gabriel Diallo

Consensus Traders

Gabriel Diallo 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.8K

Combined PnL

-$120.59

Smart Money Entry

72.9¢ → 71¢

-3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralGabriel Diallo at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Gabriel Diallo

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Gabriel Diallo71%

Nishesh Basavareddy29%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Gabriel Diallo7 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares10,963

Combined PnL-$151.07

Nishesh Basavareddy4 traders

Total Value$161.92

Total Shares499

Combined PnL+$30.47

Gabriel Diallo — 64%Nishesh Basavareddy — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Gabriel Diallo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Nishesh Basavareddy) and the top 1000 (3 on Gabriel Diallo) disagree here.

whaleGabriel Diallo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNishesh Basavareddy 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNishesh Basavareddy 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Gabriel Diallo 100% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Gabriel Dialloavg 73.4¢	$4.3K	$4.2K	-$72.89	59% 43129-29562 (72691)
HO HomeRunHazard	Gabriel Dialloavg 70.9¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$3.43	54% 16108-13511 (29619)
EF efntrickARB<$100	Gabriel Dialloavg 73.2¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$56.02	48% 3580-3827 (7407)
└ Gabriel Diallo leg	Gabriel Dialloavg 73.2¢	$954.7	$925.63	-$29.07
└ Nishesh Basavareddy leg	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 30¢	$775.04	$748.09	-$26.95
TH thestingsnake	Gabriel Dialloavg 81.8¢	$460.93	$397.92	-$61.81	60% 3831-2599 (6430)
tradecraft	Gabriel Dialloavg 77¢	$157.8	$145.55	-$12.25	52% 5773-5386 (11159)
BI BillBenter2026	Gabriel Dialloavg 75.2¢	$124.14	$117.15	-$6.99	58% 18071-13305 (31376)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 9¢	$20.34	$65.55	+$45.21	53% 13216-11692 (24908)
VeryLucky888CTR	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 57.2¢	$51.67	$52.52	+$0.84	58% 39436-28511 (67947)
1L 1lovejump<$100	Gabriel Dialloavg 72¢	$43.2	$42.6	-$0.6	52% 552-500 (1052)
RN1CTR<$100	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 59¢	$46.68	$31.32	-$15.36	54% 54083-45963 (100046)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Nishesh Basavareddyavg 58¢	$12.76	$12.54	-$0.22	56% 6726-5390 (12116)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Gabriel Dialloavg 41¢	$3.47	$6.02	+$0.04	57% 26839-19987 (46826)

UpTheBlues

Gabriel Diallo

Invested

$4,252.7

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$72.89

Record

59%

43129-29562 (72691)

HomeRunHazard

Gabriel Diallo

Invested

$3,105.13

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$3.43

Record

54%

16108-13511 (29619)

efntrickARB<$100

Gabriel Diallo

Invested

$1,729.75

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$56.02

Record

48%

3580-3827 (7407)

Both legs:

Gabriel Diallo$954.773.2¢-$29.07

Nishesh Basavareddy$775.0430¢-$26.95

thestingsnake

Gabriel Diallo

Invested

$460.93

Value

$397.92

PnL

-$61.81

Record

60%

3831-2599 (6430)

tradecraft

Gabriel Diallo

Invested

$157.8

Value

$145.55

PnL

-$12.25

Record

52%

5773-5386 (11159)

BillBenter2026

Gabriel Diallo

Invested

$124.14

Value

$117.15

PnL

-$6.99

Record

58%

18071-13305 (31376)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$20.34

Value

$65.55

PnL

+$45.21

Record

53%

13216-11692 (24908)

VeryLucky888CTR

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$51.67

Value

$52.52

PnL

+$0.84

Record

58%

39436-28511 (67947)

1lovejump<$100

Gabriel Diallo

Invested

$43.2

Value

$42.6

PnL

-$0.6

Record

52%

552-500 (1052)

RN1CTR<$100

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$46.68

Value

$31.32

PnL

-$15.36

Record

54%

54083-45963 (100046)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Nishesh Basavareddy

Invested

$12.76

Value

$12.54

PnL

-$0.22

Record

56%

6726-5390 (12116)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Gabriel Diallo

Invested

$3.47

Value

$6.02

PnL

+$0.04

Record

57%

26839-19987 (46826)

Research grade

NeutralGabriel Diallo at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Gabriel Diallo

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Gabriel Diallo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Nishesh Basavareddy) and the top 1000 (3 on Gabriel Diallo) disagree here.

whaleGabriel Diallo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNishesh Basavareddy 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNishesh Basavareddy 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Gabriel Diallo 100% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Gabriel Diallo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.