Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Carl Overbeck, while the market favors Yaroslav Demin (51%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Ningbo: Yaroslav Demin vs Carl Overbeck

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Carl Overbeck (86%) · Carl Overbeck at 50¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 3

Yaroslav Demin51¢Carl Overbeck49¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Carl Overbeck

Consensus Traders

Carl Overbeck 86%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$31.73

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 49.5¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralCarl Overbeck at 50%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Carl Overbeck

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yaroslav Demin 51%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yaroslav Demin51%

Carl Overbeck50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Carl Overbeck6 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares6,258

Combined PnL+$30.18

Yaroslav Demin1 trader

Total Value$159.53

Total Shares310

Combined PnL+$1.55

Carl Overbeck — 86%Yaroslav Demin — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Carl Overbeckavg 48¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$24.45	54% 55196-47212 (102408)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Carl Overbeckavg 48¢	$213.69	$215.92	+$2.23	52% 13445-12294 (25739)
latvian.demonCTR	Carl Overbeckavg 48¢	$211	$213.12	+$2.12	54% 600-515 (1115)
OM omnibus-076daa	Yaroslav Deminavg 51¢	$157.98	$159.53	+$1.55	49% 18348-18778 (37126)
VeryLucky888CTR	Carl Overbeckavg 49¢	$147	$135.32	-$1.4	58% 40278-29060 (69338)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Carl Overbeckavg 48¢	$87.55	$90.16	+$2.61	62% 13567-8386 (21953)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Carl Overbeckavg 48¢	$16.32	$16.49	+$0.17	59% 44148-30504 (74652)

RN1CTR

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$2,347.27

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$24.45

Record

54%

55196-47212 (102408)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$213.69

Value

$215.92

PnL

+$2.23

Record

52%

13445-12294 (25739)

latvian.demonCTR

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$211

Value

$213.12

PnL

+$2.12

Record

54%

600-515 (1115)

omnibus-076daa

Yaroslav Demin

Invested

$157.98

Value

$159.53

PnL

+$1.55

Record

49%

18348-18778 (37126)

VeryLucky888CTR

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$147

Value

$135.32

PnL

-$1.4

Record

58%

40278-29060 (69338)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$87.55

Value

$90.16

PnL

+$2.61

Record

62%

13567-8386 (21953)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$16.32

Value

$16.49

PnL

+$0.17

Record

59%

44148-30504 (74652)

Research grade

NeutralCarl Overbeck at 50%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Carl Overbeck

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yaroslav Demin 51%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Carl Overbeck wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.