Ningbo: Jake Delaney vs Alexandr Binda

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Alexandr Binda (38%) · Alexandr Binda at 52¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3

Jake Delaney49¢Alexandr Binda51¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alexandr Binda

Consensus Traders

Alexandr Binda 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$354.69

Smart Money Entry

35.3¢ → 51.5¢

+46% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlexandr Binda at 52%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alexandr Binda

3 of 8 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Jake Delaney49%

Alexandr Binda52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alexandr Binda3 traders

Total Value$880.55

Total Shares3,522

Combined PnL-$374.02

Jake Delaney5 traders

Total Value$223.17

Total Shares298

Combined PnL+$19.33

Alexandr Binda — 38%Jake Delaney — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EF efntrickARB<$100	Jake Delaneyavg 66.2¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$292.75	48% 3599-3846 (7445)
└ Jake Delaney leg	Jake Delaneyavg 66.2¢	$1.6K	$1.1K	-$442.33
└ Alexandr Binda leg	Alexandr Bindaavg 28.7¢	$180.19	$329.78	+$149.58
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Jake Delaneyavg 63.2¢	$1.3K	$999.93	+$6.32	60% 3875-2632 (6507)
└ Jake Delaney leg	Jake Delaneyavg 63.2¢	$576.72	$684.75	+$128.05
└ Alexandr Binda leg	Alexandr Bindaavg 34.6¢	$436.47	$315.17	-$121.73
0X 0x6982049c65e98606f65A0CE71fDb9b61296dA165-1777135114945	Alexandr Bindaavg 38¢	$915.06	$602.01	-$325.08	72% 936-362 (1298)
TRCM	Alexandr Bindaavg 29¢	$315.9	$272.33	-$43.57	55% 3888-3118 (7006)
BI BillBenter2026CTR	Jake Delaneyavg 75.1¢	$132.97	$132.75	-$0.22	58% 18283-13435 (31718)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Jake Delaneyavg 55.5¢	$22.2	$29.6	+$7.4	56% 6824-5466 (12290)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Jake Delaneyavg 69¢	$23.87	$25.94	+$2.08	52% 13458-12308 (25766)
LA lavendergoomsCTR<$100	Jake Delaneyavg 52¢	$13.44	$19.38	+$5.94	53% 2598-2333 (4931)
poshposhCTR<$100	Jake Delaneyavg 55¢	$11.36	$15.5	+$4.13	60% 9028-5963 (14991)
HRTrading<$100	Alexandr Bindaavg 46.6¢	$11.57	$6.21	-$5.37	54% 2513-2131 (4644)

efntrickARB<$100

Jake Delaney

Invested

$1,745.11

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$292.75

Record

48%

3599-3846 (7445)

Both legs:

Jake Delaney$1,564.9266.2¢-$442.33

Alexandr Binda$180.1928.7¢+$149.58

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Jake Delaney

Invested

$1,310.55

Value

$999.93

PnL

+$6.32

Record

60%

3875-2632 (6507)

Both legs:

Jake Delaney$576.7263.2¢+$128.05

Alexandr Binda$436.4734.6¢-$121.73

0x6982049c65e98606f65A0CE71fDb9b61296dA165-1777135114945

Alexandr Binda

Invested

$915.06

Value

$602.01

PnL

-$325.08

Record

72%

936-362 (1298)

TRCM

Alexandr Binda

Invested

$315.9

Value

$272.33

PnL

-$43.57

Record

55%

3888-3118 (7006)

BillBenter2026CTR

Jake Delaney

Invested

$132.97

Value

$132.75

PnL

-$0.22

Record

58%

18283-13435 (31718)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Jake Delaney

Invested

$22.2

Value

$29.6

PnL

+$7.4

Record

56%

6824-5466 (12290)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Jake Delaney

Invested

$23.87

Value

$25.94

PnL

+$2.08

Record

52%

13458-12308 (25766)

lavendergoomsCTR<$100

Jake Delaney

Invested

$13.44

Value

$19.38

PnL

+$5.94

Record

53%

2598-2333 (4931)

poshposhCTR<$100

Jake Delaney

Invested

$11.36

Value

$15.5

PnL

+$4.13

Record

60%

9028-5963 (14991)

HRTrading<$100

Alexandr Binda

Invested

$11.57

Value

$6.21

PnL

-$5.37

Record

54%

2513-2131 (4644)

Research grade

NeutralAlexandr Binda at 52%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Alexandr Binda

3 of 8 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alexandr Binda wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.