Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Jesse Delaney, while the market favors Sanhui Shin (53%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Seoul: Jesse Delaney vs Sanhui Shin
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Jesse Delaney (67%) · Jesse Delaney at 47¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Jesse Delaney
3
Jesse Delaney 67%
1 arb excluded
$2.0K
$285.82
20.5¢ → 47¢
+129% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralJesse Delaney at 47%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Sanhui Shin 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EF efntrickARB<$100 | Sanhui Shinavg 61.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.4K | +$317.5 | 48% 3439-3707 (7146) |
| └ Sanhui Shin leg | Sanhui Shinavg 61.7¢ | $1.0K | $895.78 | -$147.77 | |
| └ Jesse Delaney leg | Jesse Delaneyavg 7¢ | $81.1 | $546.38 | +$465.28 | |
 RN1CTR | Jesse Delaneyavg 18¢ | $178.08 | $465.76 | +$287.68 | 55% 43123-35478 (78601) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Sanhui Shinavg 74.6¢ | $50.05 | $48.79 | -$1.27 | 58% 1363-997 (2360) |
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100 | Jesse Delaneyavg 46.7¢ | $47.9 | $47.3 | -$0.6 | 58% 16089-11745 (27834) |
Invested
$1,124.65
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$317.5
Record
48%
3439-3707 (7146)
Both legs:
RN1CTRInvested
$178.08
Value
$465.76
PnL
+$287.68
Record
55%
43123-35478 (78601)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$50.05
Value
$48.79
PnL
-$1.27
Record
58%
1363-997 (2360)
Invested
$47.9
Value
$47.3
PnL
-$0.6
Record
58%
16089-11745 (27834)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.