Brest: Pierre Delage vs Niels McDonald

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Niels McDonald (67%) · Niels McDonald at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1

Pierre Delage<1¢Niels McDonald>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Niels McDonald

Consensus Traders

Niels McDonald 67%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$412.2

Smart Money Entry

86.5¢ → 99.5¢

+15% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNiels McDonald at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Niels McDonald

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pierre Delage1%

Niels McDonald100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Niels McDonald6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,111

Combined PnL-$12.65

Pierre Delage3 traders

Total Value$625.17

Total Shares1,674

Combined PnL+$424.85

Niels McDonald — 67%Pierre Delage — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Niels McDonaldavg 85.3¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$156.43	68% 30933-14866 (45799)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Pierre Delageavg 11.3¢	$184.88	$551.65	+$366.77	55% 11939-9832 (21771)
TH thestingsnake	Niels McDonaldavg 90.4¢	$475.82	$334.09	-$141.73	60% 3518-2392 (5910)
BI BillBenter2026	Niels McDonaldavg 88¢	$120.57	$87	-$33.58	58% 16107-11757 (27864)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Pierre Delageavg 5.5¢	$10.04	$66.22	+$56.18	53% 12192-10931 (23123)
RN1<$100	Niels McDonaldavg 60.9¢	$30.73	$49.48	+$18.74	55% 43357-35669 (79026)
EF efntrick<$100	Niels McDonaldavg 88¢	$47.84	$47.94	+$0.1	48% 3453-3715 (7168)
HRTrading<$100	Niels McDonaldavg 96.4¢	$40.16	$27.54	-$12.62	58% 1414-1036 (2450)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Pierre Delageavg 27¢	$5.4	$7.3	+$1.9	52% 5498-5102 (10600)

UpTheBlues

Niels McDonald

Invested

$1,142.13

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$156.43

Record

68%

30933-14866 (45799)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Pierre Delage

Invested

$184.88

Value

$551.65

PnL

+$366.77

Record

55%

11939-9832 (21771)

thestingsnake

Niels McDonald

Invested

$475.82

Value

$334.09

PnL

-$141.73

Record

60%

3518-2392 (5910)

BillBenter2026

Niels McDonald

Invested

$120.57

Value

$87

PnL

-$33.58

Record

58%

16107-11757 (27864)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Pierre Delage

Invested

$10.04

Value

$66.22

PnL

+$56.18

Record

53%

12192-10931 (23123)

RN1<$100

Niels McDonald

Invested

$30.73

Value

$49.48

PnL

+$18.74

Record

55%

43357-35669 (79026)

efntrick<$100

Niels McDonald

Invested

$47.84

Value

$47.94

PnL

+$0.1

Record

48%

3453-3715 (7168)

HRTrading<$100

Niels McDonald

Invested

$40.16

Value

$27.54

PnL

-$12.62

Record

58%

1414-1036 (2450)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Pierre Delage

Invested

$5.4

Value

$7.3

PnL

+$1.9

Record

52%

5498-5102 (10600)

Research grade

NeutralNiels McDonald at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Niels McDonald

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Niels McDonald wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.