Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Matteo Arnaldi, while the market favors Luciano Darderi (52%). 12 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Erste Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Matteo Arnaldi (71%) · Matteo Arnaldi at 48¢ · $57K held · ends Nov 3

Luciano Darderi52¢Matteo Arnaldi48¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Matteo Arnaldi

Consensus Traders

Matteo Arnaldi 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$57.0K

Combined PnL

$445.16

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 48¢

-9% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

Research candidateMatteo Arnaldi at 48%

Matches a rule that was positive after costs in both backtest windows, on small samples. Nothing passed the multiple-testing guard: a lead to research, not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Tennis tour level, 70 %+ of 5+ holders: +16.6 % (spring, n 164) and +19.0 % (October, n 120); the best category, but it fails the guard across 22 categories. Challenger/ITF had no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Matteo Arnaldi

12 of 17 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Luciano Darderi 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Luciano Darderi52%

Matteo Arnaldi48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Luciano Darderi5 traders

Total Value$22.9K

Total Shares48,205

Combined PnL-$527.47

Matteo Arnaldi12 traders

Total Value$32.0K

Total Shares57,417

Combined PnL+$972.63

Luciano Darderi — 29%Matteo Arnaldi — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU Luzzzer	Luciano Darderiavg 49.5¢	$19.1K	$18.5K	-$565.44	45% 98-119 (217)
RN1CTR	Matteo Arnaldiavg 51.1¢	$10.7K	$11.7K	+$929.46	54% 51866-43791 (95657)
isco22CTR	Matteo Arnaldiavg 55.2¢	$8.2K	$8.1K	-$109.67	64% 113-63 (176)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Matteo Arnaldiavg 50.4¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$121.47	53% 13181-11666 (24847)
VeryLucky888	Luciano Darderiavg 44.6¢	$2.5K	$2.2K	+$63.83	58% 37579-27344 (64923)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Matteo Arnaldiavg 49.7¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$93.75	62% 13400-8249 (21649)
XA xabidaking	Luciano Darderiavg 46¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$42.64	36% 222-393 (615)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Matteo Arnaldiavg 55¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$60	51% 1108-1062 (2170)
NO Novelty8CTR	Matteo Arnaldiavg 51.9¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$13.76	71% 602-243 (845)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Matteo Arnaldiavg 55¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$145.27	60% 39862-26488 (66350)
└ Luciano Darderi leg	Luciano Darderiavg 56.5¢	$577.93	$578.33	+$0.4
└ Matteo Arnaldi leg	Matteo Arnaldiavg 55¢	$696.21	$550.54	-$145.67
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192CTR	Matteo Arnaldiavg 55¢	$1,000	$990.91	-$9.09	65% 97-52 (149)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	Matteo Arnaldiavg 55¢	$982.14	$973.21	-$8.93	52% 263-242 (505)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Luciano Darderiavg 45.5¢	$1.0K	$939.81	+$65.59	52% 544-494 (1038)
└ Luciano Darderi leg	Luciano Darderiavg 45.5¢	$500.06	$566.16	+$92.69
└ Matteo Arnaldi leg	Matteo Arnaldiavg 52¢	$400.75	$373.65	-$27.1
EF efntrickCTR	Matteo Arnaldiavg 50.7¢	$843.04	$748.85	-$94.19	48% 3570-3818 (7388)
SB sbimbgCTR	Matteo Arnaldiavg 54¢	$640.71	$646.65	+$5.93	68% 2831-1307 (4138)
LS LSS1CTR	Matteo Arnaldiavg 57¢	$406.41	$402.84	-$3.57	72% 1451-578 (2029)
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3	Luciano Darderiavg 46¢	$195.74	$210.64	+$14.89	44% 379-479 (858)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Matteo Arnaldiavg 52¢	$127.4	$128.63	+$1.22	60% 3813-2585 (6398)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Luciano Darderiavg 45¢	$18.9	$20.79	+$1.89	56% 24547-18914 (43461)

Luzzzer

Luciano Darderi

Invested

$19,066.4

Value

$18.5K

PnL

-$565.44

Record

45%

98-119 (217)

RN1CTR

Matteo Arnaldi

Invested

$10,730.11

Value

$11.7K

PnL

+$929.46

Record

54%

51866-43791 (95657)

isco22CTR

Matteo Arnaldi

Invested

$8,160.45

Value

$8.1K

PnL

-$109.67

Record

64%

113-63 (176)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Matteo Arnaldi

Invested

$2,961.97

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$121.47

Record

53%

13181-11666 (24847)

VeryLucky888

Luciano Darderi

Invested

$2,510.68

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$63.83

Record

58%

37579-27344 (64923)

LilybaeumCTR

Matteo Arnaldi

Invested

$1,875.91

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$93.75

Record

62%

13400-8249 (21649)

xabidaking

Luciano Darderi

Invested

$1,961.57

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$42.64

Record

36%

222-393 (615)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Matteo Arnaldi

Invested

$1,650

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$60

Record

51%

1108-1062 (2170)

Novelty8CTR

Matteo Arnaldi

Invested

$1,686.33

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$13.76

Record

71%

602-243 (845)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Matteo Arnaldi

Invested

$1,274.14

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$145.27

Record

60%

39862-26488 (66350)

Both legs:

Luciano Darderi$577.9356.5¢+$0.4

Matteo Arnaldi$696.2155¢-$145.67

0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192CTR

Matteo Arnaldi

Invested

$1,000

Value

$990.91

PnL

-$9.09

Record

65%

97-52 (149)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

Matteo Arnaldi

Invested

$982.14

Value

$973.21

PnL

-$8.93

Record

52%

263-242 (505)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Luciano Darderi

Invested

$1,007.75

Value

$939.81

PnL

+$65.59

Record

52%

544-494 (1038)

Both legs:

Luciano Darderi$500.0645.5¢+$92.69

Matteo Arnaldi$400.7552¢-$27.1

efntrickCTR

Matteo Arnaldi

Invested

$843.04

Value

$748.85

PnL

-$94.19

Record

48%

3570-3818 (7388)

sbimbgCTR

Matteo Arnaldi

Invested

$640.71

Value

$646.65

PnL

+$5.93

Record

68%

2831-1307 (4138)

LSS1CTR

Matteo Arnaldi

Invested

$406.41

Value

$402.84

PnL

-$3.57

Record

72%

1451-578 (2029)

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3

Luciano Darderi

Invested

$195.74

Value

$210.64

PnL

+$14.89

Record

44%

379-479 (858)

thestingsnakeCTR

Matteo Arnaldi

Invested

$127.4

Value

$128.63

PnL

+$1.22

Record

60%

3813-2585 (6398)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Luciano Darderi

Invested

$18.9

Value

$20.79

PnL

+$1.89

Record

56%

24547-18914 (43461)

Research grade

Research candidateMatteo Arnaldi at 48%

Matches a rule that was positive after costs in both backtest windows, on small samples. Nothing passed the multiple-testing guard: a lead to research, not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Tennis tour level, 70 %+ of 5+ holders: +16.6 % (spring, n 164) and +19.0 % (October, n 120); the best category, but it fails the guard across 22 categories. Challenger/ITF had no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Matteo Arnaldi

12 of 17 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Luciano Darderi 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Matteo Arnaldi wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.2%

48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$99.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

199.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.