Seoul: Taro Daniel vs Andre Ilagan

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Taro Daniel (71%) · Taro Daniel at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3

Taro Daniel>99¢Andre Ilagan<1¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Taro Daniel

Consensus Traders

Taro Daniel 71%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$478.43

Smart Money Entry

59.8¢ → 100¢

+67% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralTaro Daniel at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Taro Daniel

5 of 7 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Taro Daniel100%

Andre Ilagan0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Taro Daniel5 traders

Total Value$791.23

Total Shares948

Combined PnL+$136.91

Andre Ilagan2 traders

Total Value$606.69

Total Shares2,521

Combined PnL+$341.52

Taro Daniel — 71%Andre Ilagan — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Andre Ilaganavg 35.2¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$433.08	59% 43578-30037 (73615)
└ Andre Ilagan leg	Andre Ilaganavg 35.2¢	$1.2K	$816.13	-$432.28
└ Taro Daniel leg	Taro Danielavg 77.2¢	$284.16	$283.36	-$0.8
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Taro Danielavg 92.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0.62	52% 13438-12293 (25731)
└ Taro Daniel leg	Taro Danielavg 92.5¢	$778.11	$647.39	-$130.72
└ Andre Ilagan leg	Andre Ilaganavg 16.2¢	$313.42	$444.76	+$131.34
EF efntrick	Taro Danielavg 57.4¢	$920.24	$612.29	+$108.82	48% 3590-3842 (7432)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Andre Ilaganavg 9.3¢	$264.25	$605.77	+$341.52	54% 16560-13892 (30452)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Taro Danielavg 81.2¢	$210.9	$161.68	+$35.95	53% 559-502 (1061)
└ Taro Daniel leg	Taro Danielavg 81.2¢	$113.83	$107.92	+$0.88
└ Andre Ilagan leg	Andre Ilaganavg 7.4¢	$17.34	$53.77	+$35.06
BI BillBenter2026	Taro Danielavg 67.9¢	$89.65	$102.96	+$13.31	58% 18257-13418 (31675)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Taro Danielavg 77.1¢	$93.15	$48.03	+$3.05	60% 3868-2622 (6490)
0xheavy888<$100	Taro Danielavg 58¢	$13.92	$18.36	+$4.44	56% 6781-5428 (12209)
HRTrading<$100	Taro Danielavg 63¢	$2.31	$9.59	+$7.28	54% 2345-1973 (4318)
RN1CTR<$100	Andre Ilaganavg 0.1¢	$0	$0.92	+$0	54% 54957-46919 (101876)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Andre Ilagan

Invested

$1,532.57

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$433.08

Record

59%

43578-30037 (73615)

Both legs:

Andre Ilagan$1,248.4135.2¢-$432.28

Taro Daniel$284.1677.2¢-$0.8

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Taro Daniel

Invested

$1,091.54

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0.62

Record

52%

13438-12293 (25731)

Both legs:

Taro Daniel$778.1192.5¢-$130.72

Andre Ilagan$313.4216.2¢+$131.34

efntrick

Taro Daniel

Invested

$920.24

Value

$612.29

PnL

+$108.82

Record

48%

3590-3842 (7432)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Andre Ilagan

Invested

$264.25

Value

$605.77

PnL

+$341.52

Record

54%

16560-13892 (30452)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Taro Daniel

Invested

$210.9

Value

$161.68

PnL

+$35.95

Record

53%

559-502 (1061)

Both legs:

Taro Daniel$113.8381.2¢+$0.88

Andre Ilagan$17.347.4¢+$35.06

BillBenter2026

Taro Daniel

Invested

$89.65

Value

$102.96

PnL

+$13.31

Record

58%

18257-13418 (31675)

thestingsnake<$100

Taro Daniel

Invested

$93.15

Value

$48.03

PnL

+$3.05

Record

60%

3868-2622 (6490)

0xheavy888<$100

Taro Daniel

Invested

$13.92

Value

$18.36

PnL

+$4.44

Record

56%

6781-5428 (12209)

HRTrading<$100

Taro Daniel

Invested

$2.31

Value

$9.59

PnL

+$7.28

Record

54%

2345-1973 (4318)

RN1CTR<$100

Andre Ilagan

Invested

Value

$0.92

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

54957-46919 (101876)

Research grade

NeutralTaro Daniel at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Taro Daniel

5 of 7 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Taro Daniel wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.