Seoul: Marin Cilic vs Zhizhen Zhang

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Zhizhen Zhang (25%) · Zhizhen Zhang at 53¢ · $60K held · ends Nov 3

Marin Cilic48¢Zhizhen Zhang52¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Zhizhen Zhang

Consensus Traders

Zhizhen Zhang 25%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$60.3K

Combined PnL

-$938.1

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 52.5¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralZhizhen Zhang at 53%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Zhizhen Zhang

3 of 12 top traders (25%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Marin Cilic48%

Zhizhen Zhang53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Zhizhen Zhang3 traders

Total Value$33.7K

Total Shares59,914

Combined PnL-$843.62

Marin Cilic9 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,806

Combined PnL-$94.48

Zhizhen Zhang — 25%Marin Cilic — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Zhizhen Zhangavg 50.4¢	$32.9K	$31.9K	-$965.05	60% 39473-26004 (65477)
RN1ARB<$100	Zhizhen Zhangavg 39¢	$8.8K	$11.8K	+$3.0K	54% 50820-42775 (93595)
└ Zhizhen Zhang leg	Zhizhen Zhangavg 39¢	$6.0K	$8.0K	+$2.0K
└ Marin Cilic leg	Marin Cilicavg 35¢	$2.8K	$3.8K	+$1.0K
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Marin Cilicavg 48.5¢	$5.3K	$5.5K	+$178.11	53% 12837-11424 (24261)
└ Zhizhen Zhang leg	Zhizhen Zhangavg 37¢	$1.7K	$3.2K	+$1.5K
└ Marin Cilic leg	Marin Cilicavg 48.5¢	$3.6K	$2.2K	$-1.3K
EF efntrickARB<$100	Marin Cilicavg 50.7¢	$4.1K	$4.0K	-$95.35	48% 3551-3797 (7348)
└ Zhizhen Zhang leg	Zhizhen Zhangavg 39.2¢	$1.3K	$2.3K	+$1.0K
└ Marin Cilic leg	Marin Cilicavg 50.7¢	$2.8K	$1.7K	$-1.1K
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Zhizhen Zhangavg 44.7¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	-$19.67	55% 14758-12309 (27067)
└ Zhizhen Zhang leg	Zhizhen Zhangavg 44.7¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$305.92
└ Marin Cilic leg	Marin Cilicavg 66¢	$1.2K	$904.46	-$325.59
TH thestingsnake	Zhizhen Zhangavg 46.4¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$124.34	60% 3737-2531 (6268)
GH ghostorderCTR	Marin Cilicavg 34.7¢	$608.27	$534.96	-$73.3	62% 4176-2564 (6740)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Marin Cilicavg 54.8¢	$767.87	$440.03	-$18.92	52% 529-488 (1017)
└ Zhizhen Zhang leg	Zhizhen Zhangavg 45.5¢	$207.12	$229.64	+$5.59
└ Marin Cilic leg	Marin Cilicavg 54.8¢	$233	$210.39	-$24.51
LS LSS1CTR	Marin Cilicavg 62¢	$416.63	$400.04	-$16.59	72% 1426-561 (1987)
PA Paul973973CTR	Marin Cilicavg 46¢	$300	$296.74	-$3.26	89% 826-102 (928)
0X 0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584	Zhizhen Zhangavg 37¢	$215.09	$212.18	-$2.91	52% 135-125 (260)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Marin Cilicavg 60¢	$154.11	$152.83	-$1.28	50% 3521-3537 (7058)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Marin Cilicavg 63.3¢	$110.68	$112.12	+$1.44	49% 17082-17463 (34545)
BI BillBenter2026CTR	Marin Cilicavg 62¢	$109.04	$107.36	-$1.68	58% 17314-12719 (30033)
poshposhCTR<$100	Marin Cilicavg 68¢	$59.98	$61.3	+$1.32	44% 2201-2835 (5036)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Marin Cilicavg 67¢	$40.93	$39.66	-$1.28	55% 2064-1680 (3744)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Marin Cilicavg 60¢	$9	$9.15	+$0.15	63% 25635-15377 (41012)

UpTheBlues

Zhizhen Zhang

Invested

$32,891.65

Value

$31.9K

PnL

-$965.05

Record

60%

39473-26004 (65477)

RN1ARB<$100

Zhizhen Zhang

Invested

$8,796.24

Value

$11.8K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

54%

50820-42775 (93595)

Both legs:

Zhizhen Zhang$6,004.3639¢+$2.0K

Marin Cilic$2,791.8835¢+$1.0K

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Marin Cilic

Invested

$5,291.59

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$178.11

Record

53%

12837-11424 (24261)

Both legs:

Zhizhen Zhang$1,716.1337¢+$1.5K

Marin Cilic$3,575.4648.5¢$-1.3K

efntrickARB<$100

Marin Cilic

Invested

$4,088.82

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$95.35

Record

48%

3551-3797 (7348)

Both legs:

Zhizhen Zhang$1,310.239.2¢+$1.0K

Marin Cilic$2,778.6350.7¢$-1.1K

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Zhizhen Zhang

Invested

$3,232.18

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$19.67

Record

55%

14758-12309 (27067)

Both legs:

Zhizhen Zhang$2,002.1344.7¢+$305.92

Marin Cilic$1,230.0566¢-$325.59

thestingsnake

Zhizhen Zhang

Invested

$1,390.05

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$124.34

Record

60%

3737-2531 (6268)

ghostorderCTR

Marin Cilic

Invested

$608.27

Value

$534.96

PnL

-$73.3

Record

62%

4176-2564 (6740)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Marin Cilic

Invested

$767.87

Value

$440.03

PnL

-$18.92

Record

52%

529-488 (1017)

Both legs:

Zhizhen Zhang$207.1245.5¢+$5.59

Marin Cilic$23354.8¢-$24.51

LSS1CTR

Marin Cilic

Invested

$416.63

Value

$400.04

PnL

-$16.59

Record

72%

1426-561 (1987)

Paul973973CTR

Marin Cilic

Invested

$300

Value

$296.74

PnL

-$3.26

Record

89%

826-102 (928)

0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584

Zhizhen Zhang

Invested

$215.09

Value

$212.18

PnL

-$2.91

Record

52%

135-125 (260)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Marin Cilic

Invested

$154.11

Value

$152.83

PnL

-$1.28

Record

50%

3521-3537 (7058)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Marin Cilic

Invested

$110.68

Value

$112.12

PnL

+$1.44

Record

49%

17082-17463 (34545)

BillBenter2026CTR

Marin Cilic

Invested

$109.04

Value

$107.36

PnL

-$1.68

Record

58%

17314-12719 (30033)

poshposhCTR<$100

Marin Cilic

Invested

$59.98

Value

$61.3

PnL

+$1.32

Record

44%

2201-2835 (5036)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Marin Cilic

Invested

$40.93

Value

$39.66

PnL

-$1.28

Record

55%

2064-1680 (3744)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Marin Cilic

Invested

Value

$9.15

PnL

+$0.15

Record

63%

25635-15377 (41012)

Research grade

NeutralZhizhen Zhang at 53%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Zhizhen Zhang

3 of 12 top traders (25%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Zhizhen Zhang wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.