Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Daniel Altmaier

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Daniel Altmaier (46%) · Daniel Altmaier at 63¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 1

Juan Manuel Cerundolo38¢Daniel Altmaier62¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Daniel Altmaier

Consensus Traders

Daniel Altmaier 46%

Total Value

$26.1K

Combined PnL

-$146.37

Smart Money Entry

61.4¢ → 62.5¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralDaniel Altmaier at 63%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Daniel Altmaier

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Juan Manuel Cerundolo38%

Daniel Altmaier63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Daniel Altmaier6 traders

Total Value$18.1K

Total Shares29,250

Combined PnL+$89.33

Juan Manuel Cerundolo7 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares19,949

Combined PnL-$235.7

Daniel Altmaier — 46%Juan Manuel Cerundolo — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
isco22	Daniel Altmaieravg 62.9¢	$14.5K	$14.4K	-$81.2	67% 110-55 (165)
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 46.3¢	$3.5K	$3.2K	-$252.26	39% 444-689 (1133)
VeryLucky888	Daniel Altmaieravg 53.7¢	$2.8K	$2.0K	+$153.33	58% 31634-22891 (54525)
RN1CTR	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 37¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$25.71	55% 43485-35791 (79276)
GH ghostorderCTR	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 37.1¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$15.77	68% 3929-1879 (5808)
UP UpTheBlues	Daniel Altmaieravg 60.3¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$3.87	68% 31050-14947 (45997)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 37¢	$668.2	$676.82	+$8.61	53% 12210-10943 (23153)
EF efntrickCTR	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 40.3¢	$430.35	$400.94	-$29.41	48% 3456-3720 (7176)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Daniel Altmaieravg 58¢	$295	$297.54	+$2.54	51% 977-931 (1908)
NA NatoAlfista	Daniel Altmaieravg 53¢	$163.77	$176.13	+$10.82	66% 2839-1491 (4330)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 44.2¢	$143.63	$139.82	-$3.81	55% 670-557 (1227)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 47¢	$4.2	$3.85	-$0.31	54% 13805-11589 (25394)
TRCM<$100	Daniel Altmaieravg 58¢	$2.9	$2.88	-$0.02	57% 3639-2694 (6333)

isco22

Daniel Altmaier

Invested

$14,500

Value

$14.4K

PnL

-$81.2

Record

67%

110-55 (165)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$3,500

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$252.26

Record

39%

444-689 (1133)

VeryLucky888

Daniel Altmaier

Invested

$2,772.57

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$153.33

Record

58%

31634-22891 (54525)

RN1CTR

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$1,902.54

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$25.71

Record

55%

43485-35791 (79276)

ghostorderCTR

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$1,579.75

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$15.77

Record

68%

3929-1879 (5808)

UpTheBlues

Daniel Altmaier

Invested

$1,215.73

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$3.87

Record

68%

31050-14947 (45997)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$668.2

Value

$676.82

PnL

+$8.61

Record

53%

12210-10943 (23153)

efntrickCTR

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$430.35

Value

$400.94

PnL

-$29.41

Record

48%

3456-3720 (7176)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Daniel Altmaier

Invested

$295

Value

$297.54

PnL

+$2.54

Record

51%

977-931 (1908)

NatoAlfista

Daniel Altmaier

Invested

$163.77

Value

$176.13

PnL

+$10.82

Record

66%

2839-1491 (4330)

pltrkr111CTR

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$143.63

Value

$139.82

PnL

-$3.81

Record

55%

670-557 (1227)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$4.2

Value

$3.85

PnL

-$0.31

Record

54%

13805-11589 (25394)

TRCM<$100

Daniel Altmaier

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.88

PnL

-$0.02

Record

57%

3639-2694 (6333)

Research grade

NeutralDaniel Altmaier at 63%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Daniel Altmaier

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Daniel Altmaier wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.