Brest: Robin Catry vs Dimitar Kuzmanov

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Robin Catry (22%) · Robin Catry at 57¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 1

Robin Catry57¢Dimitar Kuzmanov43¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Robin Catry

Consensus Traders

Robin Catry 22%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$56.32

Smart Money Entry

47.1¢ → 57.5¢

+22% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralRobin Catry at 57%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Robin Catry

2 of 9 top traders (22%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Robin Catry57%

Dimitar Kuzmanov43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Robin Catry2 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares7,530

Combined PnL+$72.81

Dimitar Kuzmanov7 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,865

Combined PnL-$16.5

Robin Catry — 22%Dimitar Kuzmanov — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239	Robin Catryavg 47¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$74.47	39% 444-689 (1133)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Dimitar Kuzmanovavg 53¢	$931.96	$932.75	+$0.79	53% 12216-10949 (23165)
RN1CTR	Dimitar Kuzmanovavg 53¢	$797.23	$782.18	-$15.04	55% 43492-35800 (79292)
EF efntrickARB<$100	Dimitar Kuzmanovavg 49.7¢	$812.58	$775.34	-$37.24	48% 3458-3722 (7180)
└ Robin Catry leg	Robin Catryavg 54¢	$383.2	$408.25	+$25.05
└ Dimitar Kuzmanov leg	Dimitar Kuzmanovavg 49.7¢	$429.38	$367.09	-$62.29
OL olivereaCTR	Dimitar Kuzmanovavg 75¢	$461.25	$461.25	-$6.15	58% 264-190 (454)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Dimitar Kuzmanovavg 53¢	$313.71	$327.03	+$13.31	55% 12111-9992 (22103)
└ Dimitar Kuzmanov leg	Dimitar Kuzmanovavg 53¢	$217	$212.9	-$4.09
└ Robin Catry leg	Robin Catryavg 40.7¢	$96.71	$114.12	+$17.41
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Dimitar Kuzmanovavg 51.2¢	$56.41	$60.33	+$3.92	68% 31119-14954 (46073)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Robin Catryavg 59.5¢	$49.38	$47.72	-$1.66	58% 16124-11772 (27896)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100	Dimitar Kuzmanovavg 75¢	$20.76	$20.76	-$0.28	55% 1297-1044 (2341)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Dimitar Kuzmanovavg 72¢	$14.4	$15	+$0.6	56% 6353-5083 (11436)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Dimitar Kuzmanovavg 57.9¢	$2.35	$2.01	-$0.34	58% 1460-1073 (2533)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239

Robin Catry

Invested

$3,500

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$74.47

Record

39%

444-689 (1133)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Dimitar Kuzmanov

Invested

$931.96

Value

$932.75

PnL

+$0.79

Record

53%

12216-10949 (23165)

RN1CTR

Dimitar Kuzmanov

Invested

$797.23

Value

$782.18

PnL

-$15.04

Record

55%

43492-35800 (79292)

efntrickARB<$100

Dimitar Kuzmanov

Invested

$812.58

Value

$775.34

PnL

-$37.24

Record

48%

3458-3722 (7180)

Both legs:

Robin Catry$383.254¢+$25.05

Dimitar Kuzmanov$429.3849.7¢-$62.29

olivereaCTR

Dimitar Kuzmanov

Invested

$461.25

Value

$461.25

PnL

-$6.15

Record

58%

264-190 (454)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Dimitar Kuzmanov

Invested

$313.71

Value

$327.03

PnL

+$13.31

Record

55%

12111-9992 (22103)

Both legs:

Dimitar Kuzmanov$21753¢-$4.09

Robin Catry$96.7140.7¢+$17.41

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Dimitar Kuzmanov

Invested

$56.41

Value

$60.33

PnL

+$3.92

Record

68%

31119-14954 (46073)

BillBenter2026<$100

Robin Catry

Invested

$49.38

Value

$47.72

PnL

-$1.66

Record

58%

16124-11772 (27896)

VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100

Dimitar Kuzmanov

Invested

$20.76

Value

$20.76

PnL

-$0.28

Record

55%

1297-1044 (2341)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Dimitar Kuzmanov

Invested

$14.4

Value

$15

PnL

+$0.6

Record

56%

6353-5083 (11436)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Dimitar Kuzmanov

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.01

PnL

-$0.34

Record

58%

1460-1073 (2533)

Research grade

NeutralRobin Catry at 57%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Robin Catry

2 of 9 top traders (22%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Robin Catry wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.