Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Filip Peliwo

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Filip Peliwo (78%) · Filip Peliwo at 99¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 2

Luca Castelnuovo1¢Filip Peliwo99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Filip Peliwo

Consensus Traders

Filip Peliwo 78%

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

-$362.4

Smart Money Entry

79.4¢ → 98.8¢

+24% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralFilip Peliwo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Filip Peliwo

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Luca Castelnuovo1%

Filip Peliwo99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Luca Castelnuovo2 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,906

Combined PnL-$153.19

Filip Peliwo7 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares4,368

Combined PnL-$209.21

Luca Castelnuovo — 22%Filip Peliwo — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EF efntrickCTR	Luca Castelnuovoavg 64.9¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	-$147.22	48% 3551-3797 (7348)
TH thestingsnake	Filip Peliwoavg 57.7¢	$2.3K	$1.8K	-$260.73	60% 3737-2531 (6268)
tradecraft	Filip Peliwoavg 97¢	$970	$969.5	-$0.5	52% 5637-5262 (10899)
TRCM	Filip Peliwoavg 97¢	$919.34	$918.86	-$0.47	56% 3845-3077 (6922)
SC SchruteBucks	Filip Peliwoavg 97¢	$576.47	$484.85	+$22.09	56% 1753-1371 (3124)
PA pauleta23<$100	Filip Peliwoavg 52.3¢	$22.04	$40.82	+$18.78	71% 20000-8116 (28116)
poshposh<$100	Filip Peliwoavg 62.9¢	$17.92	$28.15	+$10.23	44% 2201-2835 (5036)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Luca Castelnuovoavg 58.2¢	$21.43	$15.47	-$5.96	63% 25635-15377 (41012)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Filip Peliwoavg 25¢	$9.89	$11.28	+$1.39	62% 13301-8165 (21466)

efntrickCTR

Luca Castelnuovo

Invested

$3,509.64

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$147.22

Record

48%

3551-3797 (7348)

thestingsnake

Filip Peliwo

Invested

$2,278.16

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$260.73

Record

60%

3737-2531 (6268)

tradecraft

Filip Peliwo

Invested

$970

Value

$969.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

52%

5637-5262 (10899)

TRCM

Filip Peliwo

Invested

$919.34

Value

$918.86

PnL

-$0.47

Record

56%

3845-3077 (6922)

SchruteBucks

Filip Peliwo

Invested

$576.47

Value

$484.85

PnL

+$22.09

Record

56%

1753-1371 (3124)

pauleta23<$100

Filip Peliwo

Invested

$22.04

Value

$40.82

PnL

+$18.78

Record

71%

20000-8116 (28116)

poshposh<$100

Filip Peliwo

Invested

$17.92

Value

$28.15

PnL

+$10.23

Record

44%

2201-2835 (5036)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Luca Castelnuovo

Invested

$21.43

Value

$15.47

PnL

-$5.96

Record

63%

25635-15377 (41012)

Lilybaeum<$100

Filip Peliwo

Invested

$9.89

Value

$11.28

PnL

+$1.39

Record

62%

13301-8165 (21466)

Research grade

NeutralFilip Peliwo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Filip Peliwo

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Filip Peliwo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.