Swiss Indoors Basel, Qualification: Mika Brunold vs Remy Bertola

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Remy Bertola (67%) · Remy Bertola at 69¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 1

Mika Brunold32¢Remy Bertola68¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Remy Bertola

Consensus Traders

Remy Bertola 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.9K

Combined PnL

$2.3K

Smart Money Entry

49.3¢ → 68.5¢

+39% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralRemy Bertola at 69%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Remy Bertola

10 of 15 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Mika Brunold32%

Remy Bertola69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mika Brunold5 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares10,818

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Remy Bertola10 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares15,370

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Mika Brunold — 33%Remy Bertola — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
isco22CTR	Mika Brunoldavg 49.2¢	$4.8K	$5.8K	+$1.0K	67% 111-55 (166)
RN1	Remy Bertolaavg 54.3¢	$3.5K	$4.5K	+$925.17	55% 43593-35871 (79464)
UP UpTheBlues	Remy Bertolaavg 43.6¢	$3.8K	$4.3K	+$430.4	68% 31181-14989 (46170)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Mika Brunoldavg 54.9¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$79.47	53% 12232-10963 (23195)
└ Mika Brunold leg	Mika Brunoldavg 54.9¢	$864.09	$944.62	+$80.53
└ Remy Bertola leg	Remy Bertolaavg 50¢	$800	$640	-$160
EF efntrickCTR	Mika Brunoldavg 56¢	$624.46	$669.82	+$45.36	48% 3464-3729 (7193)
TH thestingsnake	Remy Bertolaavg 62.1¢	$397.8	$318.14	-$75.95	60% 3536-2404 (5940)
HO HomeRunHazard	Remy Bertolaavg 50.1¢	$260.44	$262.5	+$2.06	55% 12124-10004 (22128)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Remy Bertolaavg 49¢	$245	$200	-$45	51% 983-935 (1918)
VeryLucky888	Remy Bertolaavg 40¢	$178.31	$178.31	+$0	58% 31709-22957 (54666)
0X 0x1111111111<$100	Remy Bertolaavg 51¢	$87.21	$86.36	-$0.85	64% 1586-910 (2496)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Remy Bertolaavg 42¢	$45.36	$43.2	-$0.54	54% 13818-11600 (25418)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Mika Brunoldavg 65¢	$10.97	$10.13	-$0.84	59% 13939-9669 (23608)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Mika Brunoldavg 60¢	$9.6	$9.6	-$0	58% 16152-11790 (27942)
TRCMCTR<$100	Mika Brunoldavg 59¢	$7.2	$6.77	-$0.43	57% 3644-2697 (6341)
tradecraft<$100	Remy Bertolaavg 60¢	$2.56	$2.15	-$0.4	52% 5511-5119 (10630)
HRTrading<$100	Remy Bertolaavg 46¢	$1.84	$2.14	+$0.3	57% 1491-1104 (2595)

isco22CTR

Mika Brunold

Invested

$4,776.11

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

67%

111-55 (166)

RN1

Remy Bertola

Invested

$3,548.83

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$925.17

Record

55%

43593-35871 (79464)

UpTheBlues

Remy Bertola

Invested

$3,844.5

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$430.4

Record

68%

31181-14989 (46170)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Mika Brunold

Invested

$1,664.09

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$79.47

Record

53%

12232-10963 (23195)

Both legs:

Mika Brunold$864.0954.9¢+$80.53

Remy Bertola$80050¢-$160

efntrickCTR

Mika Brunold

Invested

$624.46

Value

$669.82

PnL

+$45.36

Record

48%

3464-3729 (7193)

thestingsnake

Remy Bertola

Invested

$397.8

Value

$318.14

PnL

-$75.95

Record

60%

3536-2404 (5940)

HomeRunHazard

Remy Bertola

Invested

$260.44

Value

$262.5

PnL

+$2.06

Record

55%

12124-10004 (22128)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Remy Bertola

Invested

$245

Value

$200

PnL

-$45

Record

51%

983-935 (1918)

VeryLucky888

Remy Bertola

Invested

$178.31

Value

$178.31

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

31709-22957 (54666)

0x1111111111<$100

Remy Bertola

Invested

$87.21

Value

$86.36

PnL

-$0.85

Record

64%

1586-910 (2496)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Remy Bertola

Invested

$45.36

Value

$43.2

PnL

-$0.54

Record

54%

13818-11600 (25418)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Mika Brunold

Invested

$10.97

Value

$10.13

PnL

-$0.84

Record

59%

13939-9669 (23608)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Mika Brunold

Invested

$9.6

Value

$9.6

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

16152-11790 (27942)

TRCMCTR<$100

Mika Brunold

Invested

$7.2

Value

$6.77

PnL

-$0.43

Record

57%

3644-2697 (6341)

tradecraft<$100

Remy Bertola

Invested

$2.56

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$0.4

Record

52%

5511-5119 (10630)

HRTrading<$100

Remy Bertola

Invested

$1.84

Value

$2.14

PnL

+$0.3

Record

57%

1491-1104 (2595)

Research grade

NeutralRemy Bertola at 69%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Remy Bertola

10 of 15 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Remy Bertola wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.