Ningbo: Charles Broom vs Akira Santillan

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Charles Broom (69%) · Charles Broom at 100¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 3

Charles Broom>99¢Akira Santillan<1¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Charles Broom

Consensus Traders

Charles Broom 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.3K

Combined PnL

$-2.5K

Smart Money Entry

68.9¢ → 100¢

+45% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralCharles Broom at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Charles Broom

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Charles Broom100%

Akira Santillan0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Charles Broom9 traders

Total Value$11.5K

Total Shares15,353

Combined PnL+$909.83

Akira Santillan4 traders

Total Value$260.82

Total Shares10,661

Combined PnL$-3.4K

Charles Broom — 69%Akira Santillan — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TRCM	Charles Broomavg 65.8¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	-$18.32	55% 3885-3117 (7002)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Charles Broomavg 74.8¢	$3.8K	$3.5K	-$323.63	52% 13438-12293 (25731)
└ Charles Broom leg	Charles Broomavg 74.8¢	$2.8K	$2.4K	-$385.39
└ Akira Santillan leg	Akira Santillanavg 33.5¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$61.76
tradecraft	Charles Broomavg 65.9¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$18.73	52% 5787-5407 (11194)
EF efntrick	Charles Broomavg 72.7¢	$1.8K	$2.3K	+$456.08	48% 3590-3842 (7432)
PA Paul973973	Charles Broomavg 96.9¢	$1,000	$1.0K	+$0.52	89% 861-106 (967)
TH thestingsnake	Charles Broomavg 63.1¢	$603.72	$717.39	+$273.77	60% 3868-2622 (6490)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Akira Santillanavg 34.2¢	$229.7	$231.58	+$1.88	62% 13564-8385 (21949)
BI BillBenter2026	Charles Broomavg 70¢	$124.65	$134.35	+$9.7	58% 18257-13418 (31675)
SC SchruteBucks	Charles Broomavg 66¢	$2.0K	$40.96	+$121.56	56% 1771-1386 (3157)
PA pauleta23<$100	Charles Broomavg 64.9¢	$20	$30.03	+$10.03	67% 22976-11372 (34348)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Akira Santillanavg 40¢	$24	$23.7	-$0.3	56% 6781-5428 (12209)
FL flatbarrel	Charles Broomavg 67¢	$732.81	$11.89	+$75.23	58% 2716-1946 (4662)
RN1CTR	Akira Santillanavg 34¢	$3.4K	$4.96	$-3.4K	54% 54957-46919 (101876)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Akira Santillanavg 40¢	$0.58	$0.57	-$0.01	57% 27306-20190 (47496)

TRCM

Charles Broom

Invested

$4,285.49

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$18.32

Record

55%

3885-3117 (7002)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Charles Broom

Invested

$3,828.58

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$323.63

Record

52%

13438-12293 (25731)

Both legs:

Charles Broom$2,789.6774.8¢-$385.39

Akira Santillan$1,038.9133.5¢+$61.76

tradecraft

Charles Broom

Invested

$3,095.93

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$18.73

Record

52%

5787-5407 (11194)

efntrick

Charles Broom

Invested

$1,799.05

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$456.08

Record

48%

3590-3842 (7432)

Paul973973

Charles Broom

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0.52

Record

89%

861-106 (967)

thestingsnake

Charles Broom

Invested

$603.72

Value

$717.39

PnL

+$273.77

Record

60%

3868-2622 (6490)

LilybaeumCTR

Akira Santillan

Invested

$229.7

Value

$231.58

PnL

+$1.88

Record

62%

13564-8385 (21949)

BillBenter2026

Charles Broom

Invested

$124.65

Value

$134.35

PnL

+$9.7

Record

58%

18257-13418 (31675)

SchruteBucks

Charles Broom

Invested

$1,991.86

Value

$40.96

PnL

+$121.56

Record

56%

1771-1386 (3157)

pauleta23<$100

Charles Broom

Invested

$20

Value

$30.03

PnL

+$10.03

Record

67%

22976-11372 (34348)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Akira Santillan

Invested

$24

Value

$23.7

PnL

-$0.3

Record

56%

6781-5428 (12209)

flatbarrel

Charles Broom

Invested

$732.81

Value

$11.89

PnL

+$75.23

Record

58%

2716-1946 (4662)

RN1CTR

Akira Santillan

Invested

$3,375.52

Value

$4.96

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

54%

54957-46919 (101876)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Akira Santillan

Invested

$0.58

Value

$0.57

PnL

-$0.01

Record

57%

27306-20190 (47496)

Research grade

NeutralCharles Broom at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Charles Broom

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Charles Broom wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.