Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Darwin Blanch, while the market favors Jenson Brooksby (83%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Fort Worth: Jenson Brooksby vs Darwin Blanch

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Darwin Blanch (50%) · Darwin Blanch at 18¢ · $31K held · ends Nov 1

Jenson Brooksby83¢Darwin Blanch17¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Darwin Blanch

Consensus Traders

Darwin Blanch 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$31.3K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

39.6¢ → 17.5¢

-56% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidDarwin Blanch at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Darwin Blanch

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Jenson Brooksby 83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Jenson Brooksby83%

Darwin Blanch18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Darwin Blanch4 traders

Total Value$17.9K

Total Shares42,263

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Jenson Brooksby4 traders

Total Value$10.4K

Total Shares15,278

Combined PnL+$586.35

Darwin Blanch — 50%Jenson Brooksby — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robustmstCTR	Darwin Blanchavg 39.7¢	$15.9K	$17.0K	+$1.1K	47% 85-94 (179)
RN1	Jenson Brooksbyavg 60.1¢	$6.6K	$6.7K	+$156.67	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Darwin Blanchavg 36.8¢	$4.0K	$3.0K	-$978.72	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
└ Jenson Brooksby leg	Jenson Brooksbyavg 71.8¢	$1.7K	$2.0K	+$280.73
└ Darwin Blanch leg	Darwin Blanchavg 36.8¢	$2.3K	$1.0K	$-1.3K
EF efntrick	Jenson Brooksbyavg 63.6¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$145.32	48% 3466-3735 (7201)
TH thestingsnake	Jenson Brooksbyavg 66¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$283.97	60% 3540-2405 (5945)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Darwin Blanchavg 39¢	$585	$577.5	-$7.5	51% 998-954 (1952)
1L 1lovejump	Jenson Brooksbyavg 71.3¢	$528.82	$260.45	+$0.39	52% 521-485 (1006)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Darwin Blanchavg 37¢	$194.25	$191.63	-$2.63	66% 2856-1504 (4360)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Darwin Blanchavg 36¢	$78.12	$79.21	+$1.09	54% 13884-11640 (25524)

robustmstCTR

Darwin Blanch

Invested

$15,900

Value

$17.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

47%

85-94 (179)

RN1

Jenson Brooksby

Invested

$6,570.97

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$156.67

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Darwin Blanch

Invested

$4,007.59

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$978.72

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

Both legs:

Jenson Brooksby$1,726.4671.8¢+$280.73

Darwin Blanch$2,281.1336.8¢$-1.3K

efntrick

Jenson Brooksby

Invested

$1,735.64

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$145.32

Record

48%

3466-3735 (7201)

thestingsnake

Jenson Brooksby

Invested

$1,215.3

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$283.97

Record

60%

3540-2405 (5945)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Darwin Blanch

Invested

$585

Value

$577.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

51%

998-954 (1952)

1lovejump

Jenson Brooksby

Invested

$528.82

Value

$260.45

PnL

+$0.39

Record

52%

521-485 (1006)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Darwin Blanch

Invested

$194.25

Value

$191.63

PnL

-$2.63

Record

66%

2856-1504 (4360)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Darwin Blanch

Invested

$78.12

Value

$79.21

PnL

+$1.09

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

Research grade

AvoidDarwin Blanch at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Darwin Blanch

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Jenson Brooksby 83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Darwin Blanch wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance19.3%

17.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$419.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

519.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.