Sioux Falls: Justin Boulais vs Sebastian Dominko

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Sebastian Dominko (50%) · Sebastian Dominko at 92¢ · $27K held · ends Nov 1

Justin Boulais9¢Sebastian Dominko91¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sebastian Dominko

Consensus Traders

Sebastian Dominko 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.2K

Combined PnL

$3.7K

Smart Money Entry

61.5¢ → 91.5¢

+49% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralSebastian Dominko at 92%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sebastian Dominko

5 of 10 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Justin Boulais9%

Sebastian Dominko92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sebastian Dominko5 traders

Total Value$19.1K

Total Shares21,680

Combined PnL+$4.1K

Justin Boulais5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares4,243

Combined PnL-$368.72

Sebastian Dominko — 50%Justin Boulais — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Sebastian Dominko. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSebastian Dominko 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpSebastian Dominko 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrJustin Boulais 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Sebastian Dominko 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Sebastian Dominkoavg 59.7¢	$10.0K	$14.6K	+$4.6K	68% 33658-15496 (49154)
HO HomeRunHazard	Sebastian Dominkoavg 68.6¢	$4.3K	$3.9K	-$438.46	55% 12568-10337 (22905)
RN1ARB<$100	Sebastian Dominkoavg 63¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	-$26.53	55% 46138-38317 (84455)
└ Sebastian Dominko leg	Sebastian Dominkoavg 63¢	$3.1K	$2.8K	-$290.32
└ Justin Boulais leg	Justin Boulaisavg 29.2¢	$555.3	$819.09	+$263.79
EF efntrickARB<$100	Justin Boulaisavg 37.2¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$75.59	48% 3497-3766 (7263)
└ Sebastian Dominko leg	Sebastian Dominkoavg 52.6¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$343.85
└ Justin Boulais leg	Justin Boulaisavg 37.2¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$268.26
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR	Justin Boulaisavg 45.7¢	$950.28	$883.86	-$66.41	59% 167-118 (285)
TH thestingsnake	Sebastian Dominkoavg 60.7¢	$537.13	$471.91	-$10.42	60% 3649-2471 (6120)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Justin Boulaisavg 68.7¢	$705.19	$441.42	-$263.77	53% 2489-2205 (4694)
noosh3CTR	Justin Boulaisavg 46.1¢	$475.12	$437.64	-$37.48	51% 197-192 (389)
latvian.demon	Sebastian Dominkoavg 64¢	$250	$222.66	-$27.34	53% 563-490 (1053)
0X 0x1111111111CTR<$100	Justin Boulaisavg 77¢	$77	$77.5	+$0.5	64% 1602-918 (2520)
TRCM<$100	Sebastian Dominkoavg 80¢	$36.26	$31.5	-$4.76	57% 3663-2711 (6374)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Justin Boulaisavg 74.8¢	$10.25	$8.7	-$1.55	56% 1895-1497 (3392)

UpTheBlues

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$9,997.18

Value

$14.6K

PnL

+$4.6K

Record

68%

33658-15496 (49154)

HomeRunHazard

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$4,298.13

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$438.46

Record

55%

12568-10337 (22905)

RN1ARB<$100

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$3,608.41

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$26.53

Record

55%

46138-38317 (84455)

Both legs:

Sebastian Dominko$3,053.1163¢-$290.32

Justin Boulais$555.329.2¢+$263.79

efntrickARB<$100

Justin Boulais

Invested

$2,549.18

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$75.59

Record

48%

3497-3766 (7263)

Both legs:

Sebastian Dominko$1,067.4952.6¢+$343.85

Justin Boulais$1,481.6937.2¢-$268.26

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR

Justin Boulais

Invested

$950.28

Value

$883.86

PnL

-$66.41

Record

59%

167-118 (285)

thestingsnake

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$537.13

Value

$471.91

PnL

-$10.42

Record

60%

3649-2471 (6120)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Justin Boulais

Invested

$705.19

Value

$441.42

PnL

-$263.77

Record

53%

2489-2205 (4694)

noosh3CTR

Justin Boulais

Invested

$475.12

Value

$437.64

PnL

-$37.48

Record

51%

197-192 (389)

latvian.demon

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$250

Value

$222.66

PnL

-$27.34

Record

53%

563-490 (1053)

0x1111111111CTR<$100

Justin Boulais

Invested

$77

Value

$77.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

64%

1602-918 (2520)

TRCM<$100

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$36.26

Value

$31.5

PnL

-$4.76

Record

57%

3663-2711 (6374)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Justin Boulais

Invested

$10.25

Value

$8.7

PnL

-$1.55

Record

56%

1895-1497 (3392)

Research grade

NeutralSebastian Dominko at 92%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Sebastian Dominko

5 of 10 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Sebastian Dominko. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSebastian Dominko 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpSebastian Dominko 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrJustin Boulais 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Sebastian Dominko 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sebastian Dominko wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.