Ningbo: Martin Borisiouk vs Yaroslav Demin

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yaroslav Demin (50%) · Yaroslav Demin at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1

Martin Borisiouk<1¢Yaroslav Demin>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yaroslav Demin

Consensus Traders

Yaroslav Demin 50%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$530.04

Smart Money Entry

80.6¢ → 100¢

+24% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYaroslav Demin at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yaroslav Demin

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Martin Borisiouk0%

Yaroslav Demin100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yaroslav Demin5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,097

Combined PnL-$453.67

Martin Borisiouk5 traders

Total Value$659.66

Total Shares968

Combined PnL-$76.37

Yaroslav Demin — 50%Martin Borisiouk — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Yaroslav Deminavg 75¢	$1.1K	$755.84	-$377.92	49% 16876-17268 (34144)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Martin Borisioukavg 52¢	$763.65	$569.21	-$141.96	60% 3713-2507 (6220)
LO looppau	Yaroslav Deminavg 99.9¢	$371.5	$371.68	+$0.19	99% 8570-39 (8609)
BI BillBenter2026	Yaroslav Deminavg 85.1¢	$117.37	$69	-$48.37	58% 17101-12568 (29669)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Martin Borisioukavg 10.5¢	$12.66	$60.48	+$47.82	50% 11969-12194 (24163)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100	Yaroslav Deminavg 89¢	$49.96	$28.07	-$21.89	53% 2566-2265 (4831)
poshposh<$100	Yaroslav Deminavg 91¢	$26.52	$20.85	-$5.68	—
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Martin Borisioukavg 10¢	$3.7	$18.5	+$14.8	53% 12718-11358 (24076)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Martin Borisioukavg 47¢	$6.28	$6.68	+$0.4	62% 13220-8074 (21294)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Martin Borisioukavg 2.1¢	$2.22	$4.79	+$2.57	55% 2028-1637 (3665)

omnibus-076daa

Yaroslav Demin

Invested

$1,133.76

Value

$755.84

PnL

-$377.92

Record

49%

16876-17268 (34144)

thestingsnakeCTR

Martin Borisiouk

Invested

$763.65

Value

$569.21

PnL

-$141.96

Record

60%

3713-2507 (6220)

looppau

Yaroslav Demin

Invested

$371.5

Value

$371.68

PnL

+$0.19

Record

99%

8570-39 (8609)

BillBenter2026

Yaroslav Demin

Invested

$117.37

Value

$69

PnL

-$48.37

Record

58%

17101-12568 (29669)

sentrioCTR<$100

Martin Borisiouk

Invested

$12.66

Value

$60.48

PnL

+$47.82

Record

50%

11969-12194 (24163)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100

Yaroslav Demin

Invested

$49.96

Value

$28.07

PnL

-$21.89

Record

53%

2566-2265 (4831)

poshposh<$100

Yaroslav Demin

Invested

$26.52

Value

$20.85

PnL

-$5.68

Record

—

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Martin Borisiouk

Invested

$3.7

Value

$18.5

PnL

+$14.8

Record

53%

12718-11358 (24076)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Martin Borisiouk

Invested

$6.28

Value

$6.68

PnL

+$0.4

Record

62%

13220-8074 (21294)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Martin Borisiouk

Invested

$2.22

Value

$4.79

PnL

+$2.57

Record

55%

2028-1637 (3665)

Research grade

NeutralYaroslav Demin at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yaroslav Demin

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yaroslav Demin wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.