Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yannik Kelm, while the market favors Matisse Bobichon (60%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Brest: Matisse Bobichon vs Yannik Kelm

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yannik Kelm (60%) · Yannik Kelm at 41¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1

Matisse Bobichon60¢Yannik Kelm40¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yannik Kelm

Consensus Traders

Yannik Kelm 60%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$13.49

Smart Money Entry

43¢ → 40.5¢

-6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYannik Kelm at 41%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yannik Kelm

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Matisse Bobichon 60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Matisse Bobichon60%

Yannik Kelm41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yannik Kelm3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,580

Combined PnL-$13.64

Matisse Bobichon2 traders

Total Value$41.45

Total Shares102

Combined PnL+$0.15

Yannik Kelm — 60%Matisse Bobichon — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yannik Kelmavg 56.3¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$134.24	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
└ Yannik Kelm leg	Yannik Kelmavg 56.3¢	$780.64	$603.02	-$177.62
└ Matisse Bobichon leg	Matisse Bobichonavg 52.2¢	$521.22	$564.6	+$43.38
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Matisse Bobichonavg 56.6¢	$997.5	$951.52	-$45.97	55% 12164-10045 (22209)
└ Matisse Bobichon leg	Matisse Bobichonavg 56.6¢	$723.5	$734.61	+$11.11
└ Yannik Kelm leg	Yannik Kelmavg 53.7¢	$274	$216.92	-$57.08
EF efntrickCTR	Yannik Kelmavg 45.1¢	$634.5	$603.31	-$30.68	48% 3466-3735 (7201)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Yannik Kelmavg 40.7¢	$487.31	$504.22	+$16.9	53% 12260-10982 (23242)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Yannik Kelmavg 62.3¢	$157.32	$121.68	-$35.65	58% 16182-11818 (28000)
└ Yannik Kelm leg	Yannik Kelmavg 62.3¢	$108.38	$73.95	-$34.43
└ Matisse Bobichon leg	Matisse Bobichonavg 59¢	$48.94	$47.72	-$1.22
RN1<$100	Matisse Bobichonavg 41¢	$38.65	$39.13	+$0.47	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yannik Kelmavg 37¢	$10.13	$10.27	+$0.14	65% 12565-6695 (19260)
HRTrading<$100	Matisse Bobichonavg 33¢	$2.64	$2.32	-$0.32	57% 1578-1171 (2749)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yannik Kelm

Invested

$1,301.86

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$134.24

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

Both legs:

Yannik Kelm$780.6456.3¢-$177.62

Matisse Bobichon$521.2252.2¢+$43.38

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Matisse Bobichon

Invested

$997.5

Value

$951.52

PnL

-$45.97

Record

55%

12164-10045 (22209)

Both legs:

Matisse Bobichon$723.556.6¢+$11.11

Yannik Kelm$27453.7¢-$57.08

efntrickCTR

Yannik Kelm

Invested

$634.5

Value

$603.31

PnL

-$30.68

Record

48%

3466-3735 (7201)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Yannik Kelm

Invested

$487.31

Value

$504.22

PnL

+$16.9

Record

53%

12260-10982 (23242)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Yannik Kelm

Invested

$157.32

Value

$121.68

PnL

-$35.65

Record

58%

16182-11818 (28000)

Both legs:

Yannik Kelm$108.3862.3¢-$34.43

Matisse Bobichon$48.9459¢-$1.22

RN1<$100

Matisse Bobichon

Invested

$38.65

Value

$39.13

PnL

+$0.47

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yannik Kelm

Invested

$10.13

Value

$10.27

PnL

+$0.14

Record

65%

12565-6695 (19260)

HRTrading<$100

Matisse Bobichon

Invested

$2.64

Value

$2.32

PnL

-$0.32

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

Research grade

NeutralYannik Kelm at 41%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yannik Kelm

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Matisse Bobichon 60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yannik Kelm wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.