Brest: Ugo Blanchet vs Samir Hamza Reguig

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Ugo Blanchet (80%) · Ugo Blanchet at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 1

Ugo Blanchet>99¢Samir Hamza Reguig<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ugo Blanchet

Consensus Traders

Ugo Blanchet 80%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$361.32

Smart Money Entry

90¢ → 100¢

+11% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUgo Blanchet at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ugo Blanchet

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Ugo Blanchet100%

Samir Hamza Reguig0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ugo Blanchet4 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares6,424

Combined PnL+$361.6

Samir Hamza Reguig1 trader

Total Value$2.94

Total Shares26

Combined PnL-$0.28

Ugo Blanchet — 80%Samir Hamza Reguig — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghostorder	Ugo Blanchetavg 88¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	+$199.13	68% 3928-1879 (5807)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Ugo Blanchetavg 88¢	$2.2K	$1.6K	+$126.53	53% 12198-10936 (23134)
UP UpTheBlues	Ugo Blanchetavg 96.6¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$65.52	68% 30977-14876 (45853)
EF efntrick	Ugo Blanchetavg 88.5¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	+$101.48	48% 3455-3715 (7170)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Samir Hamza Reguigavg 8¢	$3.22	$2.94	-$0.28	58% 1429-1045 (2474)

ghostorder

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$2,250

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$199.13

Record

68%

3928-1879 (5807)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$2,181.89

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$126.53

Record

53%

12198-10936 (23134)

UpTheBlues

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$1,487.79

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$65.52

Record

68%

30977-14876 (45853)

efntrick

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$1,161.05

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$101.48

Record

48%

3455-3715 (7170)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Samir Hamza Reguig

Invested

$3.22

Value

$2.94

PnL

-$0.28

Record

58%

1429-1045 (2474)

Research grade

NeutralUgo Blanchet at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Ugo Blanchet

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ugo Blanchet wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.