Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Semen Pankin, while the market favors Petr Bar Biryukov (55%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Ningbo: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Semen Pankin
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Semen Pankin (100%) · Semen Pankin at 46¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Semen Pankin
5
Semen Pankin 100%
$12.8K
-$420.8
46.3¢ → 45.5¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralSemen Pankin at 46%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Petr Bar Biryukov 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Semen Pankin. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Semen Pankinavg 46.3¢ | $9.3K | $9.0K | -$349.98 | 54% 54359-46301 (100660) |
BA Bagwell306CTR | Semen Pankinavg 45.9¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | -$21 | 59% 3911-2749 (6660) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Semen Pankinavg 47¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$35.99 | 58% 39668-28654 (68322) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Semen Pankinavg 47.2¢ | $242.73 | $231.3 | -$11.43 | 57% 27008-20057 (47065) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Semen Pankinavg 47¢ | $75.2 | $72 | -$2.4 | 56% 6752-5410 (12162) |
RN1CTRInvested
$9,250
Value
$9.0K
PnL
-$349.98
Record
54%
54359-46301 (100660)
Invested
$2,478
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$21
Record
59%
3911-2749 (6660)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,128
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$35.99
Record
58%
39668-28654 (68322)
Invested
$242.73
Value
$231.3
PnL
-$11.43
Record
57%
27008-20057 (47065)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$75.2
Value
$72
PnL
-$2.4
Record
56%
6752-5410 (12162)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.