Ningbo: Alexandr Binda vs Millen Hurrion
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Millen Hurrion (40%) · Millen Hurrion at 52¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Millen Hurrion
5
Millen Hurrion 40%
1 arb excluded
$2.4K
-$9.62
78.1¢ → 52¢
-33% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralMillen Hurrion at 52%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554 | Millen Hurrionavg 78.3¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$5.09 | 53% 2599-2307 (4906) |
EF efntrickARB<$100 | Millen Hurrionavg 47.4¢ | $908.92 | $1.0K | +$125.94 | 48% 3551-3797 (7348) |
| └ Alexandr Binda leg | Alexandr Bindaavg 36.7¢ | $341.62 | $562.42 | +$220.8 | |
| └ Millen Hurrion leg | Millen Hurrionavg 47.4¢ | $567.3 | $472.44 | -$94.86 | |
TH thestingsnakeCTR | Alexandr Bindaavg 48.8¢ | $184.17 | $116.14 | -$8.06 | 60% 3737-2531 (6268) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Millen Hurrionavg 60¢ | $13.79 | $13 | -$0.79 | 56% 6646-5318 (11964) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Alexandr Bindaavg 37.5¢ | $8.67 | $12.72 | +$4.05 | 55% 2064-1680 (3744) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Alexandr Bindaavg 39¢ | $2.34 | $2.61 | +$0.27 | 60% 39473-26004 (65477) |
Invested
$1,226.88
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$5.09
Record
53%
2599-2307 (4906)
Invested
$908.92
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$125.94
Record
48%
3551-3797 (7348)
Both legs:
Invested
$184.17
Value
$116.14
PnL
-$8.06
Record
60%
3737-2531 (6268)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$13.79
Value
$13
PnL
-$0.79
Record
56%
6646-5318 (11964)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$8.67
Value
$12.72
PnL
+$4.05
Record
55%
2064-1680 (3744)
Invested
$2.34
Value
$2.61
PnL
+$0.27
Record
60%
39473-26004 (65477)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.