Ningbo: Alexandr Binda vs Jia Hu
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Alexandr Binda (100%) · Alexandr Binda at 99¢ · $276 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Alexandr Binda
5
Alexandr Binda 100%
$275.88
$8.47
85.5¢ → 99.1¢
+16% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralAlexandr Binda at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EF efntrick | Alexandr Bindaavg 86.4¢ | $104.69 | $106.68 | +$1.99 | 48% 3456-3720 (7176) |
 TRCM<$100 | Alexandr Bindaavg 80.3¢ | $84.3 | $92.4 | +$8.1 | 57% 3639-2694 (6333) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Alexandr Bindaavg 98¢ | $44.24 | $39.64 | -$4.6 | 52% 5502-5113 (10615) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Alexandr Bindaavg 85¢ | $17.78 | $19.56 | +$1.78 | 58% 16115-11766 (27881) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Alexandr Bindaavg 82¢ | $16.4 | $17.6 | +$1.2 | 56% 6347-5081 (11428) |
Invested
$104.69
Value
$106.68
PnL
+$1.99
Record
48%
3456-3720 (7176)
TRCM<$100Invested
$84.3
Value
$92.4
PnL
+$8.1
Record
57%
3639-2694 (6333)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$44.24
Value
$39.64
PnL
-$4.6
Record
52%
5502-5113 (10615)
Invested
$17.78
Value
$19.56
PnL
+$1.78
Record
58%
16115-11766 (27881)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$16.4
Value
$17.6
PnL
+$1.2
Record
56%
6347-5081 (11428)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.