Erste Bank Open: Matteo Berrettini vs Tomas Etcheverry

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Matteo Berrettini (20%) · Matteo Berrettini at 62¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3

Matteo Berrettini62¢Tomas Etcheverry38¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Matteo Berrettini

Consensus Traders

Matteo Berrettini 20%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$12.6

Research grade

NeutralMatteo Berrettini at 62%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Matteo Berrettini

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Matteo Berrettini62%

Tomas Etcheverry39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Matteo Berrettini1 trader

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,065

Combined PnL+$10.33

Tomas Etcheverry4 traders

Total Value$538.97

Total Shares1,437

Combined PnL+$2.28

Matteo Berrettini — 20%Tomas Etcheverry — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Matteo Berrettiniavg 62¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$10.33	82% 3384-733 (4117)
VeryLucky888CTR	Tomas Etcheverryavg 37¢	$299.18	$274.66	+$4.42	58% 37023-26943 (63966)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Tomas Etcheverryavg 38¢	$175.12	$172.82	-$2.3	62% 13301-8165 (21466)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Tomas Etcheverryavg 37.4¢	$87.54	$87.75	+$0.21	57% 23972-18438 (42410)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Tomas Etcheverryavg 38¢	$3.8	$3.75	-$0.05	60% 39473-26004 (65477)

JAMJAMJAM4

Matteo Berrettini

Invested

$1,280.3

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$10.33

Record

82%

3384-733 (4117)

VeryLucky888CTR

Tomas Etcheverry

Invested

$299.18

Value

$274.66

PnL

+$4.42

Record

58%

37023-26943 (63966)

LilybaeumCTR

Tomas Etcheverry

Invested

$175.12

Value

$172.82

PnL

-$2.3

Record

62%

13301-8165 (21466)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Tomas Etcheverry

Invested

$87.54

Value

$87.75

PnL

+$0.21

Record

57%

23972-18438 (42410)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Tomas Etcheverry

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.75

PnL

-$0.05

Record

60%

39473-26004 (65477)

Research grade

NeutralMatteo Berrettini at 62%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Matteo Berrettini

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Matteo Berrettini wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.