Sioux Falls: Ozan Baris vs James Kent Trotter
7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold James Kent Trotter (64%) · James Kent Trotter at 78¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 2
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Research candidate
James Kent Trotter
11
James Kent Trotter 64%
4 arb excluded
$23.1K
$11.91
78.9¢ → 77.5¢
-2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
Research candidateJames Kent Trotter at 78%
Matches a rule that was positive after costs in both backtest windows, on small samples. Nothing passed the multiple-testing guard: a lead to research, not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HV HVAB | James Kent Trotteravg 80¢ | $11.9K | $12.0K | +$74.61 | 77% 544-167 (711) |
 RN1 | James Kent Trotteravg 79¢ | $3.9K | $3.9K | -$63.95 | 54% 54083-45963 (100046) |
EF efntrickARB<$100 | James Kent Trotteravg 62.4¢ | $1.9K | $2.1K | +$174.84 | 48% 3580-3827 (7407) |
| └ James Kent Trotter leg | James Kent Trotteravg 62.4¢ | $1.3K | $1.6K | +$290.72 | |
| └ Ozan Baris leg | Ozan Barisavg 29¢ | $612.35 | $496.46 | -$115.88 | |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100 | James Kent Trotteravg 79¢ | $1.8K | $1.6K | -$149.72 | 53% 13216-11692 (24908) |
| └ James Kent Trotter leg | James Kent Trotteravg 79¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$72 | |
| └ Ozan Baris leg | Ozan Barisavg 30.3¢ | $486.75 | $409.03 | -$77.72 | |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | James Kent Trotteravg 65.3¢ | $953.14 | $973.71 | +$20.57 | 59% 43129-29562 (72691) |
| └ James Kent Trotter leg | James Kent Trotteravg 65.3¢ | $585.51 | $685.67 | +$100.16 | |
| └ Ozan Baris leg | Ozan Barisavg 30¢ | $367.63 | $288.04 | -$79.59 | |
TH thestingsnake | James Kent Trotteravg 77.4¢ | $952.84 | $921.1 | -$25.46 | 60% 3831-2599 (6430) |
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | James Kent Trotteravg 65.6¢ | $641.69 | $569.68 | -$72.02 | 54% 16108-13511 (29619) |
| └ James Kent Trotter leg | James Kent Trotteravg 65.6¢ | $454.69 | $436.62 | -$18.07 | |
| └ Ozan Baris leg | Ozan Barisavg 52¢ | $187 | $133.06 | -$53.94 | |
GH ghostorder | James Kent Trotteravg 76¢ | $287.35 | $300.51 | +$13.17 | 62% 4201-2588 (6789) |
OM omnibus-076daa | James Kent Trotteravg 55¢ | $270.49 | $277.63 | +$7.14 | 49% 18089-18501 (36590) |
 88MCTR | Ozan Barisavg 21¢ | $218.64 | $213.43 | -$5.21 | 42% 740-1031 (1771) |
 tradecraft | James Kent Trotteravg 67¢ | $144.57 | $154.28 | +$9.71 | 52% 5773-5386 (11159) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Ozan Barisavg 49.1¢ | $108.45 | $79.7 | +$2.8 | 58% 37843-27569 (65412) |
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100 | Ozan Barisavg 51.8¢ | $24.86 | $23.76 | -$1.1 | 58% 18071-13305 (31376) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Ozan Barisavg 50¢ | $19 | $19.19 | +$0.19 | 56% 24841-19200 (44041) |
 HRTrading<$100 | James Kent Trotteravg 64¢ | $1.12 | $1.13 | +$0.01 | 55% 2195-1816 (4011) |
Invested
$11,937.85
Value
$12.0K
PnL
+$74.61
Record
77%
544-167 (711)
RN1Invested
$3,928.9
Value
$3.9K
PnL
-$63.95
Record
54%
54083-45963 (100046)
Invested
$1,900.75
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$174.84
Record
48%
3580-3827 (7407)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,750.74
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$149.72
Record
53%
13216-11692 (24908)
Both legs:
Invested
$953.14
Value
$973.71
PnL
+$20.57
Record
59%
43129-29562 (72691)
Both legs:
Invested
$952.84
Value
$921.1
PnL
-$25.46
Record
60%
3831-2599 (6430)
Invested
$641.69
Value
$569.68
PnL
-$72.02
Record
54%
16108-13511 (29619)
Both legs:
Invested
$287.35
Value
$300.51
PnL
+$13.17
Record
62%
4201-2588 (6789)
Invested
$270.49
Value
$277.63
PnL
+$7.14
Record
49%
18089-18501 (36590)
88MCTRInvested
$218.64
Value
$213.43
PnL
-$5.21
Record
42%
740-1031 (1771)
tradecraftInvested
$144.57
Value
$154.28
PnL
+$9.71
Record
52%
5773-5386 (11159)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$108.45
Value
$79.7
PnL
+$2.8
Record
58%
37843-27569 (65412)
Invested
$24.86
Value
$23.76
PnL
-$1.1
Record
58%
18071-13305 (31376)
Invested
$19
Value
$19.19
PnL
+$0.19
Record
56%
24841-19200 (44041)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.12
Value
$1.13
PnL
+$0.01
Record
55%
2195-1816 (4011)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
HVAB
James Kent Trotter — $12.0K
RN1
James Kent Trotter — $3.9K
efntrick
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
UpTheBlues
ARBArbitrage — excluded
thestingsnake
James Kent Trotter — $921.1
HomeRunHazard
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ghostorder
James Kent Trotter — $300.51
omnibus-076daa
James Kent Trotter — $277.63
88M
CTROzan Baris — $213.43