Sioux Falls: Ozan Baris vs Hunter Heck

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Ozan Baris (63%) · Ozan Baris at 97¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 1

Ozan Baris97¢Hunter Heck3¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ozan Baris

Consensus Traders

Ozan Baris 63%

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

$55.58

Smart Money Entry

94.4¢ → 96.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOzan Baris at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ozan Baris

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Ozan Baris97%

Hunter Heck3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ozan Baris5 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares6,581

Combined PnL+$58.04

Hunter Heck3 traders

Total Value$171.47

Total Shares648

Combined PnL-$2.46

Ozan Baris — 63%Hunter Heck — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Ozan Barisavg 96.6¢	$5.3K	$5.3K	+$3.03	68% 31996-15360 (47356)
HO HomeRunHazard	Ozan Barisavg 89.6¢	$612.7	$569.31	-$43.39	55% 12469-10246 (22715)
EF efntrick	Ozan Barisavg 71¢	$243.54	$329.01	+$85.47	48% 3481-3745 (7226)
GH ghostorder	Ozan Barisavg 95¢	$190	$189	-$1	67% 3978-1918 (5896)
TRCMCTR	Hunter Heckavg 30¢	$150	$147.5	-$2.5	57% 3656-2707 (6363)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Ozan Barisavg 71.8¢	$52.13	$56.56	+$13.93	60% 3564-2421 (5985)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100	Hunter Heckavg 28¢	$21.76	$22.92	+$1.17	54% 1345-1153 (2498)
RN1CTR<$100	Hunter Heckavg 3.1¢	$2.17	$1.05	-$1.12	55% 44397-36651 (81048)

UpTheBlues

Ozan Baris

Invested

$5,259.78

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$3.03

Record

68%

31996-15360 (47356)

HomeRunHazard

Ozan Baris

Invested

$612.7

Value

$569.31

PnL

-$43.39

Record

55%

12469-10246 (22715)

efntrick

Ozan Baris

Invested

$243.54

Value

$329.01

PnL

+$85.47

Record

48%

3481-3745 (7226)

ghostorder

Ozan Baris

Invested

$190

Value

$189

PnL

-$1

Record

67%

3978-1918 (5896)

TRCMCTR

Hunter Heck

Invested

$150

Value

$147.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

57%

3656-2707 (6363)

thestingsnake<$100

Ozan Baris

Invested

$52.13

Value

$56.56

PnL

+$13.93

Record

60%

3564-2421 (5985)

VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100

Hunter Heck

Invested

$21.76

Value

$22.92

PnL

+$1.17

Record

54%

1345-1153 (2498)

RN1CTR<$100

Hunter Heck

Invested

$2.17

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$1.12

Record

55%

44397-36651 (81048)

Research grade

NeutralOzan Baris at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Ozan Baris

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ozan Baris wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.7%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.