Seoul: Terence Atmane vs Koki Matsuda
7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Terence Atmane (70%) · Terence Atmane at 79¢ · $50K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Terence Atmane
10
Terence Atmane 70%
6 arb excluded
$50.0K
-$169.32
65.2¢ → 78.5¢
+20% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralTerence Atmane at 79%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Terence Atmaneavg 62.4¢ | $10.1K | $10.8K | +$663.62 | 59% 44203-30575 (74778) |
| └ Terence Atmane leg | Terence Atmaneavg 62.4¢ | $6.0K | $7.7K | +$1.6K | |
| └ Koki Matsuda leg | Koki Matsudaavg 27¢ | $4.1K | $3.1K | -$984.21 | |
 12xmrboltARB<$100 | Terence Atmaneavg 58.6¢ | $11.1K | $8.5K | -$318.88 | 44% 240-302 (542) |
| └ Terence Atmane leg | Terence Atmaneavg 58.6¢ | $6.2K | $6.6K | +$365.31 | |
| └ Koki Matsuda leg | Koki Matsudaavg 50¢ | $2.6K | $2.0K | -$684.19 | |
EF efntrick | Terence Atmaneavg 66.6¢ | $8.6K | $8.3K | -$252.68 | 48% 3599-3846 (7445) |
01 01258787xy48487484545122ARB<$100 | Koki Matsudaavg 49.4¢ | $6.9K | $7.1K | +$171.96 | 63% 252-145 (397) |
| └ Terence Atmane leg | Terence Atmaneavg 48.2¢ | $3.4K | $4.4K | +$982.24 | |
| └ Koki Matsuda leg | Koki Matsudaavg 49.4¢ | $3.5K | $2.7K | -$810.29 | |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Terence Atmaneavg 69.6¢ | $4.8K | $4.8K | +$39.94 | 52% 13458-12308 (25766) |
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100 | Koki Matsudaavg 37.2¢ | $3.3K | $3.1K | -$175.41 | 49% 18371-18801 (37172) |
| └ Terence Atmane leg | Terence Atmaneavg 52.1¢ | $1.4K | $2.1K | +$744.04 | |
| └ Koki Matsuda leg | Koki Matsudaavg 37.2¢ | $1.9K | $1.0K | -$919.45 | |
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Terence Atmaneavg 88.4¢ | $3.3K | $3.0K | -$254.44 | 54% 16692-14013 (30705) |
| └ Terence Atmane leg | Terence Atmaneavg 88.4¢ | $2.0K | $1.9K | -$158.98 | |
| └ Koki Matsuda leg | Koki Matsudaavg 20.1¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$95.46 | |
 poshposh | Terence Atmaneavg 49.2¢ | $979.83 | $1.2K | +$215.59 | 60% 9028-5963 (14991) |
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100 | Koki Matsudaavg 34.3¢ | $1.6K | $1.2K | +$283.12 | 60% 3875-2632 (6507) |
| └ Terence Atmane leg | Terence Atmaneavg 52.1¢ | $486.14 | $685.62 | +$422.09 | |
| └ Koki Matsuda leg | Koki Matsudaavg 34.3¢ | $632.63 | $488.31 | -$138.96 | |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846 | Terence Atmaneavg 58.9¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$55.41 | 59% 29904-20632 (50536) |
BE berlinskiesCTR | Koki Matsudaavg 49.5¢ | $463.86 | $355.9 | -$107.96 | 58% 5715-4198 (9913) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR | Koki Matsudaavg 31.1¢ | $311 | $270 | -$41 | 52% 1187-1117 (2304) |
 tradecraft | Terence Atmaneavg 83¢ | $161.85 | $120.9 | -$45.82 | 52% 5798-5429 (11227) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Terence Atmaneavg 91.4¢ | $82.3 | $55.8 | -$30.55 | 56% 6824-5466 (12290) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Terence Atmaneavg 90.6¢ | $27.3 | $23.25 | -$4.05 | 58% 40340-29132 (69472) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Koki Matsudaavg 35.4¢ | $20.43 | $22.25 | +$1.81 | 54% 2513-2131 (4644) |
Invested
$10,090.27
Value
$10.8K
PnL
+$663.62
Record
59%
44203-30575 (74778)
Both legs:
12xmrboltARB<$100Invested
$11,097.44
Value
$8.5K
PnL
-$318.88
Record
44%
240-302 (542)
Both legs:
Invested
$8,586.21
Value
$8.3K
PnL
-$252.68
Record
48%
3599-3846 (7445)
Invested
$6,941
Value
$7.1K
PnL
+$171.96
Record
63%
252-145 (397)
Both legs:
Invested
$4,776.68
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$39.94
Record
52%
13458-12308 (25766)
Invested
$3,294.84
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$175.41
Record
49%
18371-18801 (37172)
Both legs:
Invested
$3,263.46
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$254.44
Record
54%
16692-14013 (30705)
Both legs:
poshposhInvested
$979.83
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$215.59
Record
60%
9028-5963 (14991)
Invested
$1,567.85
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$283.12
Record
60%
3875-2632 (6507)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,035.86
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$55.41
Record
59%
29904-20632 (50536)
Invested
$463.86
Value
$355.9
PnL
-$107.96
Record
58%
5715-4198 (9913)
Invested
$311
Value
$270
PnL
-$41
Record
52%
1187-1117 (2304)
tradecraftInvested
$161.85
Value
$120.9
PnL
-$45.82
Record
52%
5798-5429 (11227)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$82.3
Value
$55.8
PnL
-$30.55
Record
56%
6824-5466 (12290)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$27.3
Value
$23.25
PnL
-$4.05
Record
58%
40340-29132 (69472)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$20.43
Value
$22.25
PnL
+$1.81
Record
54%
2513-2131 (4644)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
UpTheBlues
ARBArbitrage — excluded
12xmrbolt
ARBArbitrage — excluded
efntrick
Terence Atmane — $8.3K
01258787xy48487484545122
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
Terence Atmane — $4.8K
omnibus-076daa
ARBArbitrage — excluded
HomeRunHazard
ARBArbitrage — excluded
poshposh
Terence Atmane — $1.2K
thestingsnake
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
Terence Atmane — $1.1K