Seoul: Terence Atmane vs Soon-Woo Kwon
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Terence Atmane (60%) · Terence Atmane at 51¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Terence Atmane
5
Terence Atmane 60%
$2.2K
$80.62
52.3¢ → 50.5¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralTerence Atmane at 51%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Terence Atmaneavg 52¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$78.75 | 58% 37023-26943 (63966) |
OL oliverea | Terence Atmaneavg 53.9¢ | $359.54 | $363.24 | +$3.7 | 59% 289-202 (491) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Soon-Woo Kwonavg 46.5¢ | $67.47 | $66.08 | -$1.39 | 57% 23972-18438 (42410) |
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100 | Soon-Woo Kwonavg 46.1¢ | $51.92 | $51.23 | -$0.68 | 62% 13301-8165 (21466) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Terence Atmaneavg 53.9¢ | $19.73 | $19.96 | +$0.23 | 49% 17082-17463 (34545) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,638
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$78.75
Record
58%
37023-26943 (63966)
Invested
$359.54
Value
$363.24
PnL
+$3.7
Record
59%
289-202 (491)
Invested
$67.47
Value
$66.08
PnL
-$1.39
Record
57%
23972-18438 (42410)
Invested
$51.92
Value
$51.23
PnL
-$0.68
Record
62%
13301-8165 (21466)
Invested
$19.73
Value
$19.96
PnL
+$0.23
Record
49%
17082-17463 (34545)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.