Erste Bank Open: Luca Van Assche vs Learner Tien

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Learner Tien (71%) · Learner Tien at 94¢ · $57K held · ends Nov 3

Luca Van Assche7¢Learner Tien93¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Learner Tien

Consensus Traders

Learner Tien 71%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$56.7K

Combined PnL

-$126.45

Smart Money Entry

80.1¢ → 93.5¢

+17% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

Research candidateLearner Tien at 94%

Matches a rule that was positive after costs in both backtest windows, on small samples. Nothing passed the multiple-testing guard: a lead to research, not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Tennis tour level, 70 %+ of 5+ holders: +16.6 % (spring, n 164) and +19.0 % (October, n 120); the best category, but it fails the guard across 22 categories. Challenger/ITF had no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Learner Tien

12 of 17 top traders (71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Luca Van Assche7%

Learner Tien94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Learner Tien12 traders

Total Value$51.8K

Total Shares57,768

Combined PnL-$150.62

Luca Van Assche5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares3,731

Combined PnL+$24.17

Learner Tien — 71%Luca Van Assche — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DM dmoralez	Learner Tienavg 87.4¢	$25.5K	$18.8K	-$182.38	61% 171-109 (280)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Learner Tienavg 82.5¢	$12.2K	$12.4K	+$162.83	53% 13206-11687 (24893)
MA madkkee	Learner Tienavg 76¢	$5.3K	$5.0K	-$315.77	66% 980-510 (1490)
UP UpTheBlues	Learner Tienavg 84.4¢	$5.1K	$5.0K	-$151.13	60% 40192-26830 (67022)
99 999999666544332578855667788	Learner Tienavg 61.4¢	$2.8K	$3.1K	+$320.11	57% 611-462 (1073)
EF efntrick	Learner Tienavg 73.9¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$127.91	48% 3573-3824 (7397)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Learner Tienavg 68¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$15	51% 1114-1067 (2181)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Luca Van Asscheavg 21.3¢	$2.4K	$1.4K	$-1.0K	54% 15672-13125 (28797)
└ Learner Tien leg	Learner Tienavg 88¢	$825.26	$876.84	+$51.58
└ Luca Van Assche leg	Luca Van Asscheavg 21.3¢	$1.6K	$478.31	$-1.1K
RN1ARB<$100	Luca Van Asscheavg 24¢	$931.25	$1.1K	+$143.19	54% 52380-44285 (96665)
└ Luca Van Assche leg	Luca Van Asscheavg 24¢	$700.25	$831.55	+$131.3
└ Learner Tien leg	Learner Tienavg 68¢	$231	$242.89	+$11.89
1L 1lovejump	Learner Tienavg 78.9¢	$1.7K	$989.22	-$15.62	52% 548-498 (1046)
VeryLucky888	Learner Tienavg 68¢	$1.2K	$888.92	+$11.91	58% 37843-27569 (65412)
GH ghostorderARB<$100	Luca Van Asscheavg 13.3¢	$5.6K	$859.14	+$254.22	62% 4196-2587 (6783)
└ Luca Van Assche leg	Luca Van Asscheavg 13.3¢	$611.88	$437.5	-$127.03
└ Learner Tien leg	Learner Tienavg 83.5¢	$389.12	$421.64	+$381.25
GA GamblingOdysseyCTR	Luca Van Asscheavg 32¢	$732.1	$720.66	-$11.44	51% 817-778 (1595)
IL Illiasca	Learner Tienavg 67¢	$500	$645.52	+$145.52	65% 234-128 (362)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Learner Tienavg 75¢	$537.95	$492.29	-$45.66	60% 3825-2595 (6420)
└ Learner Tien leg	Learner Tienavg 75¢	$356.63	$339.98	-$16.64
└ Luca Van Assche leg	Luca Van Asscheavg 33.9¢	$181.32	$152.31	-$29.01
LS LSS1	Learner Tienavg 72¢	$405.36	$385.7	-$19.66	71% 1476-589 (2065)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Luca Van Asscheavg 29.1¢	$241.49	$261.86	+$20.37	50% 17615-17950 (35565)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Learner Tienavg 74.6¢	$61.16	$67.65	+$6.49	58% 18001-13242 (31243)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Luca Van Asscheavg 31¢	$63.86	$64.89	+$1.03	56% 24841-19200 (44041)
poshposhCTR<$100	Luca Van Asscheavg 6¢	$18	$28.5	+$10.5	61% 8687-5628 (14315)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Luca Van Asscheavg 6¢	$6.36	$10.07	+$3.71	55% 2171-1792 (3963)

dmoralez

Learner Tien

Invested

$25,482.14

Value

$18.8K

PnL

-$182.38

Record

61%

171-109 (280)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Learner Tien

Invested

$12,244.2

Value

$12.4K

PnL

+$162.83

Record

53%

13206-11687 (24893)

madkkee

Learner Tien

Invested

$5,333

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$315.77

Record

66%

980-510 (1490)

UpTheBlues

Learner Tien

Invested

$5,121.65

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$151.13

Record

60%

40192-26830 (67022)

999999666544332578855667788

Learner Tien

Invested

$2,762.14

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$320.11

Record

57%

611-462 (1073)

efntrick

Learner Tien

Invested

$2,591.37

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$127.91

Record

48%

3573-3824 (7397)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Learner Tien

Invested

$2,040

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$15

Record

51%

1114-1067 (2181)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$2,392.36

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

54%

15672-13125 (28797)

Both legs:

Learner Tien$825.2688¢+$51.58

Luca Van Assche$1,567.121.3¢$-1.1K

RN1ARB<$100

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$931.25

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$143.19

Record

54%

52380-44285 (96665)

Both legs:

Luca Van Assche$700.2524¢+$131.3

Learner Tien$23168¢+$11.89

1lovejump

Learner Tien

Invested

$1,652.21

Value

$989.22

PnL

-$15.62

Record

52%

548-498 (1046)

VeryLucky888

Learner Tien

Invested

$1,204.4

Value

$888.92

PnL

+$11.91

Record

58%

37843-27569 (65412)

ghostorderARB<$100

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$5,642.71

Value

$859.14

PnL

+$254.22

Record

62%

4196-2587 (6783)

Both legs:

Luca Van Assche$611.8813.3¢-$127.03

Learner Tien$389.1283.5¢+$381.25

GamblingOdysseyCTR

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$732.1

Value

$720.66

PnL

-$11.44

Record

51%

817-778 (1595)

Illiasca

Learner Tien

Invested

$500

Value

$645.52

PnL

+$145.52

Record

65%

234-128 (362)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Learner Tien

Invested

$537.95

Value

$492.29

PnL

-$45.66

Record

60%

3825-2595 (6420)

Both legs:

Learner Tien$356.6375¢-$16.64

Luca Van Assche$181.3233.9¢-$29.01

LSS1

Learner Tien

Invested

$405.36

Value

$385.7

PnL

-$19.66

Record

71%

1476-589 (2065)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$241.49

Value

$261.86

PnL

+$20.37

Record

50%

17615-17950 (35565)

BillBenter2026<$100

Learner Tien

Invested

$61.16

Value

$67.65

PnL

+$6.49

Record

58%

18001-13242 (31243)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$63.86

Value

$64.89

PnL

+$1.03

Record

56%

24841-19200 (44041)

poshposhCTR<$100

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$18

Value

$28.5

PnL

+$10.5

Record

61%

8687-5628 (14315)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Luca Van Assche

Invested

$6.36

Value

$10.07

PnL

+$3.71

Record

55%

2171-1792 (3963)

Research grade

Research candidateLearner Tien at 94%

Matches a rule that was positive after costs in both backtest windows, on small samples. Nothing passed the multiple-testing guard: a lead to research, not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Tennis tour level, 70 %+ of 5+ holders: +16.6 % (spring, n 164) and +19.0 % (October, n 120); the best category, but it fails the guard across 22 categories. Challenger/ITF had no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Learner Tien

12 of 17 top traders (71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Learner Tien wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.