Swiss Indoors Basel: Daniel Altmaier vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Juan Manuel Cerundolo (40%) · Juan Manuel Cerundolo at 56¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
5
Juan Manuel Cerundolo 40%
$3.5K
-$16.76
55.9¢ → 55.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralJuan Manuel Cerundolo at 56%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
K5 k56 | Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 56.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$20.91 | 58% 879-648 (1527) |
 VeryLucky888 | Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 55¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$14.78 | 58% 37023-26943 (63966) |
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192CTR | Daniel Altmaieravg 45¢ | $555 | $548.83 | -$6.17 | 65% 97-52 (149) |
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR | Daniel Altmaieravg 45¢ | $542.93 | $536.9 | -$6.03 | 52% 259-238 (497) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Daniel Altmaieravg 43.9¢ | $125.25 | $126.83 | +$1.58 | 57% 23972-18438 (42410) |
Invested
$1,250
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$20.91
Record
58%
879-648 (1527)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,059.87
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$14.78
Record
58%
37023-26943 (63966)
Invested
$555
Value
$548.83
PnL
-$6.17
Record
65%
97-52 (149)
Invested
$542.93
Value
$536.9
PnL
-$6.03
Record
52%
259-238 (497)
Invested
$125.25
Value
$126.83
PnL
+$1.58
Record
57%
23972-18438 (42410)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.