Cali: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Valerio Aboian
10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida (83%) · Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida at 74¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 1
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Research candidate
Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida
12
Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 83%
1 arb excluded
$11.9K
-$683.89
82.1¢ → 73.5¢
-10% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
Research candidateMatheus Pucinelli de Almeida at 74%
Matches a rule that was positive after costs in both backtest windows, on small samples. Nothing passed the multiple-testing guard: a lead to research, not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 12 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Matheus Pucinelli de Almeidaavg 83.6¢ | $2.9K | $2.8K | -$92.53 | 68% 31211-14997 (46208) |
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR | Valerio Aboianavg 24.9¢ | $2.5K | $1.9K | -$590.31 | 39% 447-690 (1137) |
GH ghostorder | Matheus Pucinelli de Almeidaavg 87.1¢ | $2.0K | $1.8K | -$136.5 | 68% 3934-1881 (5815) |
TH thestingsnake | Matheus Pucinelli de Almeidaavg 78.9¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | +$74.42 | 60% 3538-2405 (5943) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Matheus Pucinelli de Almeidaavg 85¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$29.95 | 53% 12247-10971 (23218) |
EF efntrick | Matheus Pucinelli de Almeidaavg 69.9¢ | $675.67 | $782.5 | +$106.83 | 48% 3466-3730 (7196) |
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Matheus Pucinelli de Almeidaavg 88.9¢ | $692.55 | $736.51 | +$43.96 | 55% 12144-10023 (22167) |
| └ Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida leg | Matheus Pucinelli de Almeidaavg 88.9¢ | $423.09 | $385.47 | -$37.62 | |
| └ Valerio Aboian leg | Valerio Aboianavg 14.6¢ | $269.46 | $351.03 | +$81.58 | |
 0xheavy888 | Matheus Pucinelli de Almeidaavg 79.1¢ | $439.68 | $426.08 | -$5.38 | 56% 6365-5100 (11465) |
 RN1 | Matheus Pucinelli de Almeidaavg 80¢ | $287.76 | $291.36 | +$3.6 | 55% 43612-35879 (79491) |
1L 1lovejump | Matheus Pucinelli de Almeidaavg 82.6¢ | $280.16 | $268.37 | -$11.8 | 52% 521-485 (1006) |
 VeryLucky888 | Matheus Pucinelli de Almeidaavg 78¢ | $173.55 | $180.23 | +$6.67 | 58% 31731-22975 (54706) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Matheus Pucinelli de Almeidaavg 84.6¢ | $87.99 | $84.24 | -$3.75 | 58% 16155-11793 (27948) |
SA Saber-greedCTR<$100 | Valerio Aboianavg 21¢ | $54.51 | $49.32 | -$5.19 | 59% 2269-1578 (3847) |
Invested
$2,940.03
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$92.53
Record
68%
31211-14997 (46208)
Invested
$2,500
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$590.31
Record
39%
447-690 (1137)
Invested
$1,959
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$136.5
Record
68%
3934-1881 (5815)
Invested
$1,471.14
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$74.42
Record
60%
3538-2405 (5943)
Invested
$1,134.62
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$29.95
Record
53%
12247-10971 (23218)
Invested
$675.67
Value
$782.5
PnL
+$106.83
Record
48%
3466-3730 (7196)
Invested
$692.55
Value
$736.51
PnL
+$43.96
Record
55%
12144-10023 (22167)
Both legs:
0xheavy888Invested
$439.68
Value
$426.08
PnL
-$5.38
Record
56%
6365-5100 (11465)
RN1Invested
$287.76
Value
$291.36
PnL
+$3.6
Record
55%
43612-35879 (79491)
Invested
$280.16
Value
$268.37
PnL
-$11.8
Record
52%
521-485 (1006)
VeryLucky888Invested
$173.55
Value
$180.23
PnL
+$6.67
Record
58%
31731-22975 (54706)
Invested
$87.99
Value
$84.24
PnL
-$3.75
Record
58%
16155-11793 (27948)
Invested
$54.51
Value
$49.32
PnL
-$5.19
Record
59%
2269-1578 (3847)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
UpTheBlues
Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida — $2.8K
0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239
CTRValerio Aboian — $1.9K
ghostorder
Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida — $1.8K
thestingsnake
Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida — $1.4K
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida — $1.1K
efntrick
Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida — $782.5
HomeRunHazard
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xheavy888
Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida — $426.08
RN1
Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida — $291.36
1lovejump
Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida — $268.37