Brest: Adan Freire Da Silva vs Vadym Ursu

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Vadym Ursu (67%) · Vadym Ursu at 81¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1

Adan Freire Da Silva20¢Vadym Ursu80¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vadym Ursu

Consensus Traders

Vadym Ursu 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$139.45

Smart Money Entry

68.3¢ → 80.5¢

+18% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralVadym Ursu at 81%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vadym Ursu

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Adan Freire Da Silva20%

Vadym Ursu81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vadym Ursu6 traders

Total Value$964.99

Total Shares1,171

Combined PnL+$161.79

Adan Freire Da Silva3 traders

Total Value$234.62

Total Shares1,458

Combined PnL-$301.24

Vadym Ursu — 67%Adan Freire Da Silva — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Vadym Ursu. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpVadym Ursu 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrVadym Ursu 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedVadym Ursu 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Vadym Ursu 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OL oliverea	Vadym Ursuavg 69¢	$569.25	$717.75	+$148.5	58% 264-190 (454)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Vadym Ursuavg 60.4¢	$491.45	$642.27	+$150.82	68% 31050-14947 (45997)
└ Adan Freire Da Silva leg	Adan Freire Da Silvaavg 19.9¢	$141.33	$337.86	+$196.53
└ Vadym Ursu leg	Vadym Ursuavg 60.4¢	$350.12	$304.41	-$45.71
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Adan Freire Da Silvaavg 37.7¢	$466.54	$160.94	-$305.6	55% 12102-9989 (22091)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Vadym Ursuavg 73.3¢	$79.54	$93.84	+$14.3	53% 12210-10943 (23153)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Vadym Ursuavg 85.2¢	$135.74	$86.95	-$48.79	58% 16115-11766 (27881)
└ Vadym Ursu leg	Vadym Ursuavg 85.2¢	$110.78	$61.75	-$49.03
└ Adan Freire Da Silva leg	Adan Freire Da Silvaavg 52¢	$24.96	$25.2	+$0.24
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Adan Freire Da Silvaavg 32¢	$67	$72.23	+$5.23	63% 22547-13309 (35856)
tradecraft<$100	Vadym Ursuavg 57¢	$59.84	$66.66	+$6.82	52% 5502-5113 (10615)
RN1<$100	Vadym Ursuavg 68¢	$63.96	$61.61	-$2.35	55% 43485-35791 (79276)
HRTrading<$100	Vadym Ursuavg 72.2¢	$27.47	$22.26	-$5.21	58% 1451-1066 (2517)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Vadym Ursuavg 63¢	$3.15	$2.88	-$0.27	60% 3523-2397 (5920)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Adan Freire Da Silvaavg 19.4¢	$2.14	$1.44	-$0.87	48% 3456-3720 (7176)

oliverea

Vadym Ursu

Invested

$569.25

Value

$717.75

PnL

+$148.5

Record

58%

264-190 (454)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Vadym Ursu

Invested

$491.45

Value

$642.27

PnL

+$150.82

Record

68%

31050-14947 (45997)

Both legs:

Adan Freire Da Silva$141.3319.9¢+$196.53

Vadym Ursu$350.1260.4¢-$45.71

HomeRunHazardCTR

Adan Freire Da Silva

Invested

$466.54

Value

$160.94

PnL

-$305.6

Record

55%

12102-9989 (22091)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Vadym Ursu

Invested

$79.54

Value

$93.84

PnL

+$14.3

Record

53%

12210-10943 (23153)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Vadym Ursu

Invested

$135.74

Value

$86.95

PnL

-$48.79

Record

58%

16115-11766 (27881)

Both legs:

Vadym Ursu$110.7885.2¢-$49.03

Adan Freire Da Silva$24.9652¢+$0.24

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Adan Freire Da Silva

Invested

$67

Value

$72.23

PnL

+$5.23

Record

63%

22547-13309 (35856)

tradecraft<$100

Vadym Ursu

Invested

$59.84

Value

$66.66

PnL

+$6.82

Record

52%

5502-5113 (10615)

RN1<$100

Vadym Ursu

Invested

$63.96

Value

$61.61

PnL

-$2.35

Record

55%

43485-35791 (79276)

HRTrading<$100

Vadym Ursu

Invested

$27.47

Value

$22.26

PnL

-$5.21

Record

58%

1451-1066 (2517)

thestingsnake<$100

Vadym Ursu

Invested

$3.15

Value

$2.88

PnL

-$0.27

Record

60%

3523-2397 (5920)

efntrickCTR<$100

Adan Freire Da Silva

Invested

$2.14

Value

$1.44

PnL

-$0.87

Record

48%

3456-3720 (7176)

Research grade

NeutralVadym Ursu at 81%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Vadym Ursu

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Vadym Ursu. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpVadym Ursu 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrVadym Ursu 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedVadym Ursu 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Vadym Ursu 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vadym Ursu wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.