Will CA Estudiantes win on 2026-10-25?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 57¢ · $625 held · ends Oct 25

Yes57¢No43¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$624.58

Combined PnL

-$1.08

Research grade

NeutralYes at 57%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes57%

No43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$406.2

Total Shares713

Combined PnL+$0

No3 traders

Total Value$218.38

Total Shares508

Combined PnL-$1.08

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388	Yesavg 57¢	$406.2	$406.2	+$0	55% 1302-1044 (2346)
us391CTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$86.17	$84.22	-$1.96	52% 1356-1270 (2626)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$75.68	$75.68	+$0.88	54% 13815-11594 (25409)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$58.48	$58.48	+$0	50% 7761-7812 (15573)

VD721lsj4938Dk388

Yes

Invested

$406.2

Value

$406.2

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

1302-1044 (2346)

us391CTR<$100

Invested

$86.17

Value

$84.22

PnL

-$1.96

Record

52%

1356-1270 (2626)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$75.68

Value

$75.68

PnL

+$0.88

Record

54%

13815-11594 (25409)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$58.48

Value

$58.48

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

7761-7812 (15573)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 57%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.