CA Defensores de Belgrano vs. CA San Miguel: O/U 1.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 50¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 50%
$1.0K
-$63.13
51.7¢ → 50¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 50%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 50.1¢ | $589.89 | $588.68 | -$1.21 | 51% 22118-21518 (43636) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 42.3¢ | $187.83 | $221 | +$33.17 | 60% 40192-26830 (67022) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 57¢ | $206.5 | $153.69 | -$49.54 | 58% 37843-27569 (65412) |
 RN1 | Underavg 91¢ | $101.11 | $55.56 | -$45.56 | 54% 52380-44285 (96665) |
Invested
$589.89
Value
$588.68
PnL
-$1.21
Record
51%
22118-21518 (43636)
Invested
$187.83
Value
$221
PnL
+$33.17
Record
60%
40192-26830 (67022)
VeryLucky888Invested
$206.5
Value
$153.69
PnL
-$49.54
Record
58%
37843-27569 (65412)
RN1Invested
$101.11
Value
$55.56
PnL
-$45.56
Record
54%
52380-44285 (96665)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.