Will Nueva Chicago win on 2026-10-26?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 64¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 26

Yes36¢No64¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$19.62

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,772

Combined PnL+$31.11

Yes3 traders

Total Value$400.69

Total Shares1,113

Combined PnL-$11.49

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388	Noavg 61.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$31.11	55% 1587-1307 (2894)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 36.9¢	$206.8	$201.6	-$5.2	51% 21853-21263 (43116)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 37¢	$178.36	$144.01	-$4	58% 37543-27331 (64874)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$58.14	$55.08	-$2.29	57% 24505-18852 (43357)

VD721lsj4938Dk388

Invested

$1,094.16

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$31.11

Record

55%

1587-1307 (2894)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$206.8

Value

$201.6

PnL

-$5.2

Record

51%

21853-21263 (43116)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$178.36

Value

$144.01

PnL

-$4

Record

58%

37543-27331 (64874)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.14

Value

$55.08

PnL

-$2.29

Record

57%

24505-18852 (43357)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.