Will Chacarita Juniors win on 2026-10-25?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 80¢ · $277 held · ended Oct 25

Yes20¢No80¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$277.16

Combined PnL

-$1.62

Smart Money Entry

77.2¢ → 80¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$274.85

Total Shares357

Combined PnL-$1.87

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2.3

Total Shares10

Combined PnL+$0.25

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Noavg 77.2¢	$168.42	$167.94	-$1.57	65% 1548-830 (2378)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 75¢	$45.05	$46.23	+$1.18	57% 1670-1266 (2936)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 78.8¢	$43.35	$42.35	-$1	68% 31590-15191 (46781)
RN1<$100	Noavg 79¢	$18.81	$18.33	-$0.48	55% 44092-36295 (80387)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.5¢	$2.05	$2.3	+$0.25	55% 4919-4092 (9011)

darkumbreon88

Invested

$168.42

Value

$167.94

PnL

-$1.57

Record

65%

1548-830 (2378)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$45.05

Value

$46.23

PnL

+$1.18

Record

57%

1670-1266 (2936)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$43.35

Value

$42.35

PnL

-$1

Record

68%

31590-15191 (46781)

RN1<$100

Invested

$18.81

Value

$18.33

PnL

-$0.48

Record

55%

44092-36295 (80387)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0.25

Record

55%

4919-4092 (9011)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.