Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will CA Patronato Parana win on 2026-10-25?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 45¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
1 arb excluded
$5.7K
-$56.38
Research grade
NeutralNo at 45%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391CTR | Noavg 45.5¢ | $3.6K | $3.5K | -$75.59 | 52% 1358-1270 (2628) |
RA rabbitfoot1 | Yesavg 55¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$17.93 | 53% 901-789 (1690) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $110.09 | $110.09 | -$1.12 | 54% 13818-11600 (25418) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 45¢ | $68.85 | $68.85 | -$0 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 55¢ | $41.24 | $41.24 | -$1.12 | |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $86.14 | $86.92 | +$0.78 | 68% 31181-14989 (46170) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 55¢ | $100 | $55.5 | +$0.5 | 58% 31709-22957 (54666) |
us391CTRInvested
$3,559.07
Value
$3.5K
PnL
-$75.59
Record
52%
1358-1270 (2628)
Invested
$1,971.57
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$17.93
Record
53%
901-789 (1690)
Invested
$110.09
Value
$110.09
PnL
-$1.12
Record
54%
13818-11600 (25418)
Both legs:
Invested
$86.14
Value
$86.92
PnL
+$0.78
Record
68%
31181-14989 (46170)
VeryLucky888Invested
$100
Value
$55.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
58%
31709-22957 (54666)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.