Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (83%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Agropecuario Argentino win on 2026-10-25?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 17¢ · $73 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$72.62
-$18.89
Research grade
AvoidYes at 17%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $53.95 | $53.95 | -$0 | 54% 14075-11776 (25851) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 50.8¢ | $32.01 | $10.72 | -$21.29 | 68% 31694-15247 (46941) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $5.55 | $7.95 | +$2.4 | 55% 4953-4129 (9082) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
17.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.