Will CD Godoy Cruz win on 2026-10-25?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 80¢ · $80 held · ended Oct 25

Yes80¢No20¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$79.84

Combined PnL

-$2.36

Research grade

NeutralYes at 80%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes80%

No20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$49.24

Total Shares88

Combined PnL-$18.83

No3 traders

Total Value$30.6

Total Shares65

Combined PnL+$16.48

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$52.93	$35.51	-$17.42	57% 1494-1105 (2599)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$13.02	$29.14	+$16.12	68% 31694-15247 (46941)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 70.7¢	$10.6	$7.95	-$2.65	55% 4953-4129 (9082)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$2.13	$3.41	+$1.28	57% 1726-1316 (3042)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$2.42	$2.37	-$0.04	58% 32272-23432 (55704)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$0.82	$0.85	+$0.04	50% 7851-7906 (15757)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$0.28	$0.6	+$0.32	55% 44235-36462 (80697)

oieshfn345<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.93

Value

$35.51

PnL

-$17.42

Record

57%

1494-1105 (2599)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Invested

$13.02

Value

$29.14

PnL

+$16.12

Record

68%

31694-15247 (46941)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.6

Value

$7.95

PnL

-$2.65

Record

55%

4953-4129 (9082)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.13

Value

$3.41

PnL

+$1.28

Record

57%

1726-1316 (3042)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.42

Value

$2.37

PnL

-$0.04

Record

58%

32272-23432 (55704)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$0.82

Value

$0.85

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

7851-7906 (15757)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.6

PnL

+$0.32

Record

55%

44235-36462 (80697)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 80%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.