CA Unión vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 4.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 94¢ · $194 held · ended Oct 26

Over6¢Under94¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$194.05

Combined PnL

-$37.73

Smart Money Entry

98.7¢ → 94.3¢

-4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 94%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over6%

Under94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$116.2

Total Shares123

Combined PnL-$5.38

Over2 traders

Total Value$77.85

Total Shares1,120

Combined PnL-$32.35

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
bernardi22<$100	Underavg 99.9¢	$99.98	$94.38	-$5.6	56% 1208-938 (2146)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 8.9¢	$72.68	$46.57	-$26.11	54% 54359-46301 (100660)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 7.5¢	$37.52	$31.28	-$6.24	50% 11601-11716 (23317)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 93.3¢	$21.59	$21.82	+$0.23	54% 2262-1899 (4161)

bernardi22<$100

Under

Invested

$99.98

Value

$94.38

PnL

-$5.6

Record

56%

1208-938 (2146)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$72.68

Value

$46.57

PnL

-$26.11

Record

54%

54359-46301 (100660)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$37.52

Value

$31.28

PnL

-$6.24

Record

50%

11601-11716 (23317)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$21.59

Value

$21.82

PnL

+$0.23

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 94%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.5%

94.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.