Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (83%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
CA Unión vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 3.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 17¢ · $377 held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 71%
$377.43
$17.04
21.8¢ → 17¢
-22% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 17%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Under 83%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 21.9¢ | $129.9 | $133.43 | +$3.53 | 59% 43129-29562 (72691) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 79.1¢ | $112.52 | $116.66 | +$4.14 | 50% 23388-23002 (46390) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 76.6¢ | $248.84 | $60.15 | +$6.52 | 58% 39436-28511 (67947) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 21.6¢ | $43.75 | $45.68 | +$1.93 | 57% 26839-19987 (46826) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 21¢ | $9.45 | $10.13 | +$0.68 | 49% 11291-11571 (22862) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 22¢ | $8.25 | $8.44 | +$0.19 | 55% 2195-1816 (4011) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Overavg 22¢ | $2.89 | $2.95 | +$0.07 | 50% 31550-31196 (62746) |
Invested
$129.9
Value
$133.43
PnL
+$3.53
Record
59%
43129-29562 (72691)
Invested
$112.52
Value
$116.66
PnL
+$4.14
Record
50%
23388-23002 (46390)
VeryLucky888Invested
$248.84
Value
$60.15
PnL
+$6.52
Record
58%
39436-28511 (67947)
Invested
$43.75
Value
$45.68
PnL
+$1.93
Record
57%
26839-19987 (46826)
Invested
$9.45
Value
$10.13
PnL
+$0.68
Record
49%
11291-11571 (22862)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$8.25
Value
$8.44
PnL
+$0.19
Record
55%
2195-1816 (4011)
Invested
$2.89
Value
$2.95
PnL
+$0.07
Record
50%
31550-31196 (62746)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
17.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.