Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (58%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
CA Unión vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 2.5
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 42¢ · $268 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Over
2
Over 100%
$268.01
$0
42¢ → 42¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 42%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 58%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA CannaeCTR | Overavg 42¢ | $191.57 | $191.57 | +$0 | 53% 14998-13126 (28124) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $76.44 | $76.44 | +$0 | 57% 23971-18438 (42409) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.