CA Unión vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 0.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 100%
$1.6K
$100.32
93.8¢ → 99.9¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609 | Overavg 98¢ | $881.24 | $898.32 | +$17.54 | 82% 2301-519 (2820) |
 RN1 | Overavg 82¢ | $379.07 | $461.85 | +$82.78 | 54% 54359-46301 (100660) |
LO looppau | Overavg 99.9¢ | $269.32 | $269.32 | +$0 | 99% 9989-45 (10034) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.