Spread: CA Unión (-1.5)
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Estudiantes de La Plata (33%) · Estudiantes de La Plata at 78¢ · $535 held · ended Oct 26
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Neutral
Estudiantes de La Plata
3
Estudiantes de La Plata 33%
$534.67
-$96.24
Research grade
NeutralEstudiantes de La Plata at 78%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Estudiantes de La Plataavg 86¢ | $574.81 | $522.01 | -$52.8 | 59% 43329-29788 (73117) |
LO looppauCTR<$100 | CA Uniónavg 99.9¢ | $39.95 | $8.8 | -$31.15 | 99% 9989-45 (10034) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | CA Uniónavg 91.9¢ | $16.15 | $3.87 | -$12.28 | 55% 7895-6404 (14299) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.