CA Unión leading at halftime?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 89¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$1.2K
$4.73
74.6¢ → 89¢
+19% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 76¢ | $533.52 | $530.01 | -$3.51 | 59% 43129-29562 (72691) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 73¢ | $218.96 | $215.96 | -$3 | 50% 31550-31196 (62746) |
0X 0xcba9371dcbbd7a48b477f04274376e1feea9f812CTR | Yesavg 27¢ | $200 | $207.41 | +$7.41 | 25% 77-230 (307) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 72.7¢ | $166.2 | $159.61 | +$3.04 | 58% 39436-28511 (67947) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $63.51 | $64.38 | +$0.87 | 57% 26839-19987 (46826) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $1.71 | $1.7 | -$0.01 | 55% 2195-1816 (4011) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $1.73 | $1.67 | -$0.06 | 50% 23388-23002 (46390) |
Invested
$533.52
Value
$530.01
PnL
-$3.51
Record
59%
43129-29562 (72691)
Invested
$218.96
Value
$215.96
PnL
-$3
Record
50%
31550-31196 (62746)
Invested
$200
Value
$207.41
PnL
+$7.41
Record
25%
77-230 (307)
VeryLucky888Invested
$166.2
Value
$159.61
PnL
+$3.04
Record
58%
39436-28511 (67947)
Invested
$63.51
Value
$64.38
PnL
+$0.87
Record
57%
26839-19987 (46826)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.71
Value
$1.7
PnL
-$0.01
Record
55%
2195-1816 (4011)
Invested
$1.73
Value
$1.67
PnL
-$0.06
Record
50%
23388-23002 (46390)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.