Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-10-26?

13 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (87%) · No at 66¢ · $176K held · ended Oct 26

Yes35¢No65¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 87%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$176.1K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

63¢ → 65.5¢

+4% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 66%

Matches a rule that was positive after costs in both backtest windows, on small samples. Nothing passed the multiple-testing guard: a lead to research, not a recommendation.

$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensus80 %+, side value $100k+: +13.2 % a trade (n 91, 95 % CI +2.0 to +24.4), positive in both windows; small sample, not significant after the multiple-testing guard.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$110.0K

Total Shares173,481

Combined PnL+$718

Yes2 traders

Total Value$63.6K

Total Shares169,719

Combined PnL+$811.53

No — 87%Yes — 13%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KY Kyn008	Noavg 63¢	$93.1K	$93.8K	+$738.9	50% 209-207 (416)
DE DelidelaDeleCTR	Yesavg 37¢	$56.2K	$57.0K	+$760	48% 30-33 (63)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 63¢	$8.6K	$8.5K	-$67.93	49% 11291-11571 (22862)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR	Yesavg 37.2¢	$6.6K	$6.6K	+$51.53	62% 2165-1311 (3476)
CA Cannae	Noavg 63¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	+$30.83	53% 15491-13677 (29168)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 62.5¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$43.73	50% 23388-23002 (46390)
└ No leg	Noavg 62.5¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$83.6
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 36.8¢	$631.14	$591.27	-$39.87
VeryLucky888	Noavg 63.1¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$11.14	58% 39436-28511 (67947)
RN1	Noavg 63.5¢	$984.16	$1.0K	+$31.66	54% 54083-45963 (100046)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 63¢	$839.59	$832.93	-$6.66	59% 43129-29562 (72691)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 64¢	$320	$317.5	-$2.5	51% 1128-1071 (2199)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 63.4¢	$187.43	$187.64	+$0.2	57% 26839-19987 (46826)
0xheavy888	Noavg 64¢	$128	$132	+$4	56% 6726-5390 (12116)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 63.1¢	$63.77	$63.69	-$0.08	55% 2195-1816 (4011)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 64¢	$8.46	$8.59	+$0.13	53% 13216-11692 (24908)
oieshfn345<$100	Noavg 62.5¢	$7.17	$7.49	+$0.33	58% 1565-1155 (2720)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 62¢	$6.36	$6.62	+$0.26	50% 31550-31196 (62746)

Kyn008

Invested

$93,101.12

Value

$93.8K

PnL

+$738.9

Record

50%

209-207 (416)

DelidelaDeleCTR

Yes

Invested

$56,240

Value

$57.0K

PnL

+$760

Record

48%

30-33 (63)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$8,559.13

Value

$8.5K

PnL

-$67.93

Record

49%

11291-11571 (22862)

AmericaFirst1CTR

Yes

Invested

$6,593.21

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$51.53

Record

62%

2165-1311 (3476)

Cannae

Invested

$3,557.15

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$30.83

Record

53%

15491-13677 (29168)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$2,388

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$43.73

Record

50%

23388-23002 (46390)

Both legs:

No$1,756.8662.5¢+$83.6

Yes$631.1436.8¢-$39.87

VeryLucky888

Invested

$1,662.87

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$11.14

Record

58%

39436-28511 (67947)

RN1

Invested

$984.16

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$31.66

Record

54%

54083-45963 (100046)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$839.59

Value

$832.93

PnL

-$6.66

Record

59%

43129-29562 (72691)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$320

Value

$317.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

51%

1128-1071 (2199)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$187.43

Value

$187.64

PnL

+$0.2

Record

57%

26839-19987 (46826)

0xheavy888

Invested

$128

Value

$132

PnL

+$4

Record

56%

6726-5390 (12116)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$63.77

Value

$63.69

PnL

-$0.08

Record

55%

2195-1816 (4011)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$8.46

Value

$8.59

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

13216-11692 (24908)

oieshfn345<$100

Invested

$7.17

Value

$7.49

PnL

+$0.33

Record

58%

1565-1155 (2720)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$6.36

Value

$6.62

PnL

+$0.26

Record

50%

31550-31196 (62746)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 66%

Matches a rule that was positive after costs in both backtest windows, on small samples. Nothing passed the multiple-testing guard: a lead to research, not a recommendation.

$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensus80 %+, side value $100k+: +13.2 % a trade (n 91, 95 % CI +2.0 to +24.4), positive in both windows; small sample, not significant after the multiple-testing guard.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.