Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
CA Unión vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: Both Teams to Score
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 1.0¢ · $56 held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 75%
$55.92
$1.22
17.2¢ → 1¢
-94% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VA Vampiro1<$100 | Yesavg 89¢ | $45.45 | $45.43 | +$4.98 | 77% 2993-917 (3910) |
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609CTR<$100 | Noavg 1¢ | $6.68 | $6.68 | +$0 | 82% 2301-519 (2820) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 48¢ | $1.75 | $3.5 | +$1.75 | 58% 39668-28654 (68322) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 19.1¢ | $5.81 | $0.3 | -$5.5 | 61% 8819-5730 (14549) |
Invested
$45.45
Value
$45.43
PnL
+$4.98
Record
77%
2993-917 (3910)
Invested
$6.68
Value
$6.68
PnL
+$0
Record
82%
2301-519 (2820)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1.75
Value
$3.5
PnL
+$1.75
Record
58%
39668-28654 (68322)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$5.81
Value
$0.3
PnL
-$5.5
Record
61%
8819-5730 (14549)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.