CA River Plate vs. Racing Club: O/U 4.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 95¢ · $705 held · ended Oct 25

Over5¢Under95¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

Total Value

$704.92

Combined PnL

-$3.44

Smart Money Entry

87.1¢ → 95¢

+9% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over5%

Under95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$691.37

Total Shares804

Combined PnL-$8.97

Over3 traders

Total Value$13.54

Total Shares97

Combined PnL+$5.54

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Underavg 87.1¢	$521.15	$514.29	-$6.86	56% 6455-5169 (11624)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 86¢	$116.65	$116.65	+$0	58% 32399-23548 (55947)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 88¢	$29.04	$28.38	-$0.49	54% 14164-11846 (26010)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 89¢	$24.27	$23.45	-$0.82	50% 9057-8986 (18043)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 8¢	$4.92	$8.61	+$3.69	50% 7903-7970 (15873)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Underavg 94¢	$9.4	$8.6	-$0.8	68% 31996-15360 (47356)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 5¢	$0.98	$2.74	+$1.76	52% 16709-15271 (31980)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 13.5¢	$2.11	$2.19	+$0.08	56% 1802-1398 (3200)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$521.15

Value

$514.29

PnL

-$6.86

Record

56%

6455-5169 (11624)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$116.65

Value

$116.65

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

32399-23548 (55947)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$29.04

Value

$28.38

PnL

-$0.49

Record

54%

14164-11846 (26010)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$24.27

Value

$23.45

PnL

-$0.82

Record

50%

9057-8986 (18043)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.92

Value

$8.61

PnL

+$3.69

Record

50%

7903-7970 (15873)

UpTheBlues<$100

Under

Invested

$9.4

Value

$8.6

PnL

-$0.8

Record

68%

31996-15360 (47356)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.98

Value

$2.74

PnL

+$1.76

Record

52%

16709-15271 (31980)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.11

Value

$2.19

PnL

+$0.08

Record

56%

1802-1398 (3200)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 3

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.