CA River Plate vs. Racing Club: O/U 3.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 84¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 25

Over16¢Under84¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

-$262.31

Smart Money Entry

82¢ → 84¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 84%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over16%

Under84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares7,102

Combined PnL-$450.83

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares4,888

Combined PnL+$188.52

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xB985b597F5598a975C42032749386D765826B70d-1781959038065	Underavg 82.5¢	$4.9K	$4.4K	-$442.28	60% 185-124 (309)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 81.9¢	$759.13	$745.5	-$13.63	68% 31996-15360 (47356)
RN1CTR	Overavg 17.3¢	$433.32	$626.28	+$192.96	55% 44397-36651 (81048)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 17.5¢	$411.74	$380.97	-$30.78	52% 16709-15271 (31980)
0xheavy888	Underavg 73¢	$193.47	$198.77	+$5.3	56% 6455-5169 (11624)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Overavg 21¢	$55	$81.34	+$26.34	63% 23068-13683 (36751)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 80¢	$9	$8.78	-$0.22	50% 9057-8986 (18043)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$1.08	$1.08	+$0	56% 1802-1398 (3200)

0xB985b597F5598a975C42032749386D765826B70d-1781959038065

Under

Invested

$4,869.93

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$442.28

Record

60%

185-124 (309)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$759.13

Value

$745.5

PnL

-$13.63

Record

68%

31996-15360 (47356)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$433.32

Value

$626.28

PnL

+$192.96

Record

55%

44397-36651 (81048)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$411.74

Value

$380.97

PnL

-$30.78

Record

52%

16709-15271 (31980)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$193.47

Value

$198.77

PnL

+$5.3

Record

56%

6455-5169 (11624)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$55

Value

$81.34

PnL

+$26.34

Record

63%

23068-13683 (36751)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$8.78

PnL

-$0.22

Record

50%

9057-8986 (18043)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.08

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

1802-1398 (3200)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 84%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.