CA River Plate vs. Racing Club: O/U 2.5

7 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Under (41%) · Under at 59¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 25

Over42¢Under58¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 41%

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$78.71

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 58.5¢

+14% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 59%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 17 top traders (41%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over42%

Under59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares7,740

Combined PnL-$5.7

Over10 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares5,721

Combined PnL+$84.41

Under — 41%Over — 59%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
us391	Underavg 50.8¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$88.6	52% 1379-1297 (2676)
MO mooseborzoiiCTR	Overavg 49¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$56.4	50% 1033-1030 (2063)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 52.9¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$110.9	52% 16709-15271 (31980)
CA CannaeCTR	Overavg 49.8¢	$707.19	$722.24	+$15.05	53% 13688-12137 (25825)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 50¢	$461.26	$306.02	-$3.06	58% 32399-23548 (55947)
BE berlinskies	Underavg 51.1¢	$266.4	$255.58	-$10.82	57% 4983-3708 (8691)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 52¢	$260	$255	-$5	51% 1037-994 (2031)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 55¢	$114.08	$101.55	-$12.53	68% 31996-15360 (47356)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 49.6¢	$94.66	$97.41	+$1.79	54% 14164-11846 (26010)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 40.4¢	$41.92	$52.89	+$10.97	50% 7903-7970 (15873)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$43.41	$45.16	+$1.75	56% 1802-1398 (3200)
RN1<$100	Underavg 47¢	$43.52	$43.98	+$0.46	55% 44397-36651 (81048)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$27.78	$31.75	+$3.97	51% 6950-6596 (13546)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 58¢	$31.9	$26.95	-$4.95	50% 9057-8986 (18043)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Overavg 58¢	$13.92	$16.32	+$2.4	61% 2675-1696 (4371)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 62¢	$8.08	$8.21	+$0.13	59% 14319-9905 (24224)
PA pauleta23<$100	Underavg 38¢	$6.25	$6.09	-$0.17	71% 18115-7363 (25478)

us391

Under

Invested

$2,466.55

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$88.6

Record

52%

1379-1297 (2676)

mooseborzoiiCTR

Over

Invested

$1,381.8

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$56.4

Record

50%

1033-1030 (2063)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,055.5

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$110.9

Record

52%

16709-15271 (31980)

CannaeCTR

Over

Invested

$707.19

Value

$722.24

PnL

+$15.05

Record

53%

13688-12137 (25825)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$461.26

Value

$306.02

PnL

-$3.06

Record

58%

32399-23548 (55947)

berlinskies

Under

Invested

$266.4

Value

$255.58

PnL

-$10.82

Record

57%

4983-3708 (8691)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$260

Value

$255

PnL

-$5

Record

51%

1037-994 (2031)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$114.08

Value

$101.55

PnL

-$12.53

Record

68%

31996-15360 (47356)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$94.66

Value

$97.41

PnL

+$1.79

Record

54%

14164-11846 (26010)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$41.92

Value

$52.89

PnL

+$10.97

Record

50%

7903-7970 (15873)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$43.41

Value

$45.16

PnL

+$1.75

Record

56%

1802-1398 (3200)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$43.52

Value

$43.98

PnL

+$0.46

Record

55%

44397-36651 (81048)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$27.78

Value

$31.75

PnL

+$3.97

Record

51%

6950-6596 (13546)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$31.9

Value

$26.95

PnL

-$4.95

Record

50%

9057-8986 (18043)

shiifooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.92

Value

$16.32

PnL

+$2.4

Record

61%

2675-1696 (4371)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.08

Value

$8.21

PnL

+$0.13

Record

59%

14319-9905 (24224)

pauleta23<$100

Under

Invested

$6.25

Value

$6.09

PnL

-$0.17

Record

71%

18115-7363 (25478)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 59%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 17 top traders (41%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.