CA River Plate vs. Racing Club: O/U 1.5
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (14%) · Over at 76¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 14%
1 arb excluded
$2.9K
$134.04
Research grade
NeutralOver at 76%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 77¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$12.09 | 55% 44397-36651 (81048) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 80¢ | $754.3 | $744.36 | -$9.94 | 52% 16709-15271 (31980) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 23¢ | $375.42 | $381.59 | +$6.17 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 80¢ | $378.88 | $362.78 | -$16.1 | |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Underavg 23¢ | $342.14 | $412.61 | +$70.47 | 50% 7903-7970 (15873) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 23.8¢ | $288.62 | $339.97 | +$51.35 | 50% 9057-8986 (18043) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 23¢ | $138 | $168 | +$30 | 58% 32399-23548 (55947) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 23¢ | $35.88 | $35.88 | +$0 | 51% 6950-6596 (13546) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 23¢ | $22.74 | $27.65 | +$0.46 | 54% 14164-11846 (26010) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 28.6¢ | $16.57 | $10.43 | -$6.15 | 68% 31996-15360 (47356) |
RN1Invested
$1,162.97
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$12.09
Record
55%
44397-36651 (81048)
Invested
$754.3
Value
$744.36
PnL
-$9.94
Record
52%
16709-15271 (31980)
Both legs:
Invested
$342.14
Value
$412.61
PnL
+$70.47
Record
50%
7903-7970 (15873)
Invested
$288.62
Value
$339.97
PnL
+$51.35
Record
50%
9057-8986 (18043)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$138
Value
$168
PnL
+$30
Record
58%
32399-23548 (55947)
Invested
$35.88
Value
$35.88
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
6950-6596 (13546)
Invested
$22.74
Value
$27.65
PnL
+$0.46
Record
54%
14164-11846 (26010)
Invested
$16.57
Value
$10.43
PnL
-$6.15
Record
68%
31996-15360 (47356)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.